April 8, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | King Adrock | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baytown Get It On | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rol Again Dancer | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uptown Social | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I Am Freaky Fast | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dominicana | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo’s Treasure | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | You’re a Dandy | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Insanity It Seems | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Beachfront Bid | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Myriskyaffair | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Point Well Taken | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lavish Habits | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Just a Nyquist | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Curiously | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Blamethechampagne | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Run the Tap | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Poronui | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Duvet Day (IRE) | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Determined Gold | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cornice Traverse | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sconce | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Joezine | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Pure Country | 8.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winter Music | 20.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Gunduz | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Florida Gator | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Terawatt | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vidal | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scary Larry | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kidyounot | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Password Protected | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Barbarino | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Pastrami | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Graywing | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kobe B | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Little Alex | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Volbeat | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Formal Order | 30.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | A Mo Reay | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malibu Marie | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Skratch Kat | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mystique Saboteur | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Customer Driven | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | If You Please | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glacken’s Cause | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Marr Time | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Park On the Nile | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Chamita | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Supply Chain | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | In Effect | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daddy Frank (GB) | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rochambeau | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Healing | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Myopic | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tiz Our Turn | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Hornet | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Of the Moment | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ginsburned | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | El Kabong | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mount Kenya | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Willing to Speed | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Handcarved | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 16 | Hemp Heaven | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hunt the Front | 20.00 | 14.4 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Beravina | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Indigo Miss | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Luv Dragon | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classic Coyne | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Arsinoe | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Imogene Malvina | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elle of the Ball | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Todo Sola | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Pyramid | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Constitution Gal | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Keen | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gin N Sin | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Oma the Great | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Runaway Wife | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bedtime for Buffy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Jetinwithclass | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Lafayette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | My Prankster | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Money Supply | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surfer Dude | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | All in Sync | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Barossa | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Tejano Twist | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Unified Report | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Old Homestead | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Osbourne | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Magnolia Midnight | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ignitis | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Xperiment | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Coinage | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Verbal | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sy Dog | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grand Sonata | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Napoleonic War | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Credibility | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Central Bank Ashland S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mattie B | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nest | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awake At Midnyte | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sterling Silver | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Interstatedaydream | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Happy Soul | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cocktail Moments | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Heavenly Hellos | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blissful Change | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bay Storm | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spicy Marg | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Amalfi Princess | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lemos Cunha | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Angel Palm (GB) | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mamba Wamba (IRE) | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Almadrina (GB) | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mused (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Southern Mama | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Senora Roma | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Fouette | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Beachside Bunny | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Threatlevelmidnite (GB) | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foreign Exchange | 30.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.