December 3, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Blue Times | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Investment Income | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mozay | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Our Sweet Pea | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pruning | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Exotic Cat | 50.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Except Temptation | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Valentine | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Early Glow | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Khuluq | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ambassador Kelly | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | A Mo Reay | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chasing Artemis | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Glamorous Days | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sealithic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Worker | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cool Laoban | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ouraika (FR) | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Open Til Midnight | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Not Yet Charlie | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pure Panic | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hezastonecoldfox | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Our Tiny Dancer | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Hagler | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Default Protection | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aunt Naughty | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Our Jessica | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Vixen | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Intense Honor | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rhombique | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Heels Together | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Thesis Break | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Sweet Mission | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Ring Thing | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sudden Impulse | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Empty Net | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Perhaps Tonight (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin to Fly | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Appreciate | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kemba | 4.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bella Principessa | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Empires First Lady | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Freedom Machine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Raffinity | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Proper Grammar | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Evidence Based | 6.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Athena Dancer | 15.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Adriatic Rose | 15.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Champagne Poetry | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Candy Light | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Martini’s Amica | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Racing Queen | 50.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glitter Up | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Bean Christine | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Reina de La Rose | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lost My Sock | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dream North | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Berries | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sabelle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Toosweettobesour | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Puglia | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Surprise | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Money in the Bank | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Steam Engine | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saratoga Pal | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Panda | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Winners Laugh | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Bobby | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gran Casique | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cause of Action | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Next Flight | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heavy Roller | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speeding Kid | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Joycee Haz Pizzaz | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ragtime Blues | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Binkster | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Smile Bryan | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Battalion | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Artemus Bridge | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Summer to Remember | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Matty’s Express | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Ready | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spectatorless | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jack the Cat | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nutzforboltz | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Outrageous Bet | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Supreme Aura | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | American Lincoln | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Regal Quality | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | King’s Honor (IRE) | 8.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Ancient Brown | 15.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Monet | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Highway Queen | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mashnee Girl | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Masterof the Tunes | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Snicket | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caumsett | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Uncle’s Gem | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Write This Down | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s the One | 2.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Happy Hill Lil | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cinderella’s Cause | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ok Honey | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Chasing Cara | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quantitativbreezin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.