November 28, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Butterbean | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Landed Gentry | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Swap Shop | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | U So Money Baby | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heavenly Hellos | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Blue Neith | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shotgun Hottie | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Silverleaf | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | The Stiff | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Olympic Romp | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chase Tracker | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Morocco | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kitten’s Man | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lord Dragon | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Futile | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | David’s Gem | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cloud Creek | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knowhowiknow | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Paynt Your Wagon | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ike and Jack | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Madelyns Heat | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Moral Ambiguity | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Chavo | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Z Man | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Flecha | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | First Count | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Blacksmith Strong | 50.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cachirulo | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Nashchetta | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | American Union | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twobirdsonestone | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bubba Caballo | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Toe Tappin Luke | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Petit Verdot | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Press Snooze | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Quality | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Convection | 4.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Swingin Friar | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Revenio | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Woopigsooie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Icecap | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Lost in Limbo | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Authority | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Boom Five Thousand | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jack Van Berg | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cold as Hell | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cove Blue | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pit Boss | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ournationonparade | 3.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Three Technique | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Best of Greeley | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Winterwood | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Defiance | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ethereal Road | 20.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kupuna | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Aristocat | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Timeless Joke | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oneparticulrharbor | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Call Me Jamal | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Go Emi | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Surfer Dude | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gunfighter | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Promises to Dance | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Walkathon | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ari Oakley | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hazy Command | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Old Pho | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Comedy Act | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jag Warrior | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Broadway Blaze | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fever Dreaming | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Madelyn’s Magic | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bella Cascata | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peace Peddler | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mercy Warren | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Little Mombo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Run for the Hills | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Keen Ice Sight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Caught Looking | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bizzy Echo | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Shaniah | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Stellar Grace | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Super Cat Lady | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Floris | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sweet Queen Bee | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Enter Sandwoman | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | La Tourista | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lutescoot N Boogie | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Beirut Beauty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Shellby | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Off We Go | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Premier Wish | 6.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Encourage | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One More Baby | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Monologue | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Full On | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bold Looker | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | King of Sting | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Good Soldier | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Strong Light | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lake Tahoe | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Money Lender | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Napa Valley | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | O P Firecracker | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lookinforexcitemen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Ducale | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Irish Unity | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Cody’s Wish | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Ram | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Santa Cruiser | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bourbon War | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Runway Magic | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | What a Country | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fed Money | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Speitful Sam | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Peruvian Boy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Ebben | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Continuation | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Frosted Grace | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Attachment Rate | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Americanus | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Shadow Matter | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Hustle | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Atoka | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Strike Me Down | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Pathetique | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Silver Strand | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Fire On Time | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Surrealist | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Princess Lea | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dame Cinco | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Joy of Painting | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lady Traveler | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Aizu | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Social Dilemma | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunny Isle Beach | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Maybe Later | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Yes to Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Blushable | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Lady Frosted | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.