November 28, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | City At Night | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Water Flow | 30.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Principality | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wick Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Brother Cam | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Good Medicine | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ruthenian | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paratus | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Imminent Storm | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Irie Spice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Blame the Gods | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Fatima | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kitten’s Romance | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Good Times | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Two Cent Tootsie | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tappanzee | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kissing Frogs | 2.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stella Mars | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Girl Named Jac | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Left Leaning Lucy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Kerik | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Effiemeister | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peaches and Spice | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amos | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flashing Red | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gentle Annie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bustin Bay | 1.20 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gringotts | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | No Deal | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cover Photo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Emperor’s Cause | 3.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Exit Right | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Run for Boston | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scotto | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Water’s Edge | 1.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bustin the Rules | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Full Moon Fever | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Invest | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Eight Weeks Long | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zap Man | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dreampoint | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sandro the Great | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bernardino | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bless Bless | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Umbria | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mr. Connecticut | 1.80 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mighty Meister | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pivotal Run | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Action Jackson | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Mayor | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Reunion Tour | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Forty Comets | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Rush to Honor | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | First Constitution (CHI) | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Glory Road | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chris and Dave | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Empty Tomb | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Danny California | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tiergan | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lil Commissioner | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Amatteroftime | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Backsideofthemoon | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prioritize | 4.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Autumn Days S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Secure Connection | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Too Sexy | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Raven’s Cry (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Majorette | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love And Thunder (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Athwaaq | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Piedi Bianchi | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Change of Control | 2.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Fall Highweight H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | War Tocsin | 15.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rough Entry | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sir Alfred James | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hopeful Treasure | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smooth B | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Green Light Go | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wendell Fong | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chateau | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Tepin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tasweya | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Solib | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Caironi | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Determined Star | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Anador (FR) | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vergara | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Louella Street | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mischievous Kiss | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Mia | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kingdom Queen | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Waters of Merom | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Freedomofthepress | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Balinese | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Boss Cara | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Genetic Gem | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Rogue | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiktoknaway | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anchor Lady | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | R Girl Faith | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mischief Reigns | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Funny Enough | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wicked Happy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Thismightbetheone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | After the Wire | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Our Sweet Pea | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | My Delicious | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Gailhorsewind | 3.50 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.