November 27, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Star Prado | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Temple Quest | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Trip | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Harborage | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Song of Paradise | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Enough Heart | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Missbudlitelime | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Allstar Magic | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flashy Sassy | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Little Tator Tot | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Convict Pike | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Green Mo’ster | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Sign | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indy Tourist | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nobrag Justfact | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Southern Liaison | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Gone d’Wild | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Nitap | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dance Away | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Complete Court | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sienna Breeze | 4.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Inbound | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | More Than Work | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beau Noir (IRE) | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Warrior Johny | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Holiday House | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Benissimo | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mazuma | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Overanalytical | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Alebrije | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freedom’s Way | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harmon Killer Brew | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Russian Tank | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Iberville | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mo Z | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Broken Rib | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Charged Temp | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Buckley Bunny | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dream On It | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Chick | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sunshine Star | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Drop Dead Sexy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Iron Banner | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Averi Ever After | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Bob F. Wright Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pixelate | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Logical Myth | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pirate’s Punch | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Another Mystery | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Agenda | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forty Under | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Com’ On Sweet Luv | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Elle of the Ball | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ocean Size | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speedometer | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carnelian | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Melvin | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 13 | Pine Knoll | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Courageously | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Master of the Ring | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Barleewon | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Full Dinner Jacket | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | El Socio | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) | 5.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fever Temple | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Capt. Maestri | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Buy Me Candy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Healing | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Filippo | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Ronithelimodriver | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beauregard | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Leroy Jenkins | 30.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Schnell | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon St Tappin | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Brass Monkey | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chrompton | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bitsy’s Custom C | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Behemah Star | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Totally Addicted | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Loveu and Proudofu | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Donna’s Court | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Isn’t It Time | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moment to Dream | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tensas Virginia | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Super Et | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Bode’s Connection | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Feme Jolie | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | A G’s Charlotte | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | I’d Be Rich | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Beleout | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Starship Nola | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.