Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 27, 2021

November 27, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Star Prado 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Temple Quest 3.50 5.3 10-1
9 9 Midnight Trip 4.50 5.9 11-1
7 7 Lucky Harborage 6.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Song of Paradise 6.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Enough Heart 8.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Missbudlitelime 12.00 8 15-1
1 1 Allstar Magic 12.00 8.2 15-1
4 4 Flashy Sassy 10.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Little Tator Tot 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Convict Pike 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Alfons Walde (IRE) 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 The Green Mo’ster 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Majestic Sign 4.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Indy Tourist 3.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Nobrag Justfact 12.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Southern Liaison 2.50 4 8-1
3 3 She’s Gone d’Wild 3.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Miss Nitap 3.50 5.8 11-1
1 1 Dance Away 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 The Complete Court 6.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Sienna Breeze 4.50 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Inbound 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 More Than Work 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Beau Noir (IRE) 4.50 5.8 11-1
10 10 Warrior Johny 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Holiday House 4.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Benissimo 8.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Mazuma 8.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Overanalytical 10.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Alebrije 20.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Freedom’s Way 20.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Harmon Killer Brew 12.00 8.4 16-1
12 12 Russian Tank 20.00 9.2 17-1
14 14 Iberville 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mo Z 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Broken Rib 30.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Charged Temp 5.00 3 6-1
7 7 Buckley Bunny 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 Dream On It 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Strong Chick 5.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Sunshine Star 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Drop Dead Sexy 8.00 5 9-1
8 8 Iron Banner 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Averi Ever After 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Bob F. Wright Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pixelate 2.00 4 8-1
5 5 Monarchs Glen (GB) 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Logical Myth 3.50 4.5 9-1
8 8 Pirate’s Punch 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Another Mystery 8.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Big Agenda 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Forty Under 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Mutakatif (IRE) 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Com’ On Sweet Luv 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Elle of the Ball 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Ocean Size 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Speedometer 2.50 4 8-1
1 1 Carnelian 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Melvin 8.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 13 Pine Knoll 3.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Courageously 10.00 6.7 13-1
11 10 Takafumi (BRZ) 4.50 6.9 13-1
12 11 Master of the Ring 10.00 7.3 14-1
10 9 Barleewon 12.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Full Dinner Jacket 12.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 El Socio 6.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) 5.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Fever Temple 15.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 Capt. Maestri 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Buy Me Candy 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Healing 4.50 SCRATCH
8 7 Filippo 20.00 10.7 20-1
14 12 Ronithelimodriver 30.00 11.5 22-1
6 6 Beauregard 20.00 11.6 22-1
9 8 Leroy Jenkins 30.00 14.9 28-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Schnell 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Bourbon St Tappin 3.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Big Brass Monkey 3.50 5 9-1
5 5 Chrompton 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Bitsy’s Custom C 5.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Behemah Star 6.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Totally Addicted 8.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Loveu and Proudofu 12.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Donna’s Court 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Isn’t It Time 2.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Moment to Dream 3.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Tensas Virginia 4.50 6.6 12-1
5 5 Super Et 6.00 7.1 13-1
1A 6 Bode’s Connection 12.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 La Feme Jolie 12.00 8.5 16-1
7 8 A G’s Charlotte 12.00 8.5 16-1
6 7 I’d Be Rich 8.00 8.6 16-1
8 9 Beleout 12.00 9.5 18-1
9 10 Starship Nola 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
3rd - 12:44
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Final
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Final
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4th - 8:12
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4th - 4:56
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4th - 7:31
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3rd - 5:35
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3rd - 6:42
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2nd - 2:20
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