Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 27, 2021

November 27, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Ice Baby 4.50 1.2 2-1
9 9 Have I Ever 10.00 1.3 3-1
6 6 Safe Travels 8.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Disco Queen 10.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Zmuda 5.00 1.8 3-1
13 13 Fast Giselle 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Love of My Life 8.00 2 4-1
8 8 Make Out 10.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Verdandi 12.00 2.2 4-1
12 12 Star Table 20.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Only Show in Town 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Medley 3.50 5.2 10-1
5 5 Eyeofthebeholder 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Keen Ice Sight 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Del Moon 4.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Mountain Pine 15.00 1.7 3-1
14 14 Loco 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Isthmian 12.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 One Cool Dude 15.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Supe 15.00 2.3 4-1
15 15 Pitch Dark 20.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Malibu Time 20.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Levee Proud 30.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 You Make Me Happy 30.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 El Cubanito 30.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Unpredictable Bay 1.60 7.5 14-1
6 6 Koselio 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Strings 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Master Lea 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Scotch No Rocks 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Catwings 4.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Jaccaci 8.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Park On the Nile 12.00 1.5 3-1
12 12 Eclipsed 15.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Ain’t Broke 5.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Princess Pauline 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Bird Empress 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Off the Charts 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Honeycomb 5.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Gorgeous Carina 20.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Super Fire 15.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Blamethechampagne 6.00 5.5 10-1
13 13 Burrow Down 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Runaway Wife 5.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Savo Island 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Querobin Dourada 10.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Tricked Out 8.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Gun Slingin 3.50 1.9 4-1
11 11 Cocktail Moments 15.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Laser Locked 8.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Gimme Candy 12.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Daniella’s Cause 15.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Delightof the Nile 15.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Emityaaz 20.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Story Hour 20.00 3.8 7-1
13 13 Beyond Perfection 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Bicameral 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Friendship Road 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Most Empressive 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mistical Curlin 8.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Magazine Street 5.00 1.2 2-1
12 12 Star Alignment 8.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Wolfe County 4.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Andy Cant 4.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Cyclone 12.00 2 4-1
6 6 Curly Tail 15.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Travel Guide 20.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Spin Wheel 6.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Paid in Full 50.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Commander Compton 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Ten Gauge 4.50 5.9 11-1
13 13 O P Firecracker 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Monologue 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Paid Twice 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Napa Valley 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Gunoe 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Peaceful Waters 8.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Benny the Book 12.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 General Strike 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Brody’s Fly 15.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 King Doodle 15.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Halfmoon 12.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Chasing Time 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Vigano 15.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Pour Me a Double 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Fort Defiance 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gunfighter 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ethereal Road 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Timeless Joke 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Call Me Jamal 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Kupuna 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Full Focus 4.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Champagne Sister 15.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Sax 20.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Lavendar Lane 20.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Miss Chamita 15.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Implosion 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Freedom Rose 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Bhoma 3.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Manasota Sunset 8.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Beverly’s Charge 12.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Mohaylady 15.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Feeling Happy 8.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Legendary Lore 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Lucky Boss 8.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Yono 20.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Grand in Bay 50.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Trademark 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Fan the Fire 4.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Bonus Appreciation 8.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Play Action Pass 8.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Rocket One 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Mr. Bouma 5.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Kevin’s Folly 12.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Wicked Genius 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Amicable 50.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Red Run 6.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lively Shively S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Chattalot 3.50 1.1 2-1
6 4 Ignitis 8.00 1.2 2-1
2 1 Cool Papa G 5.00 1.5 3-1
8 6 Hoist the Gold 5.00 5.4 10-1
5 3 Tejano Twist 1.40 6 11-1
7 5 Barber Road 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Charter Oak 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ready to March 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sandstone 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Yuugiri 3.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Code for Success 12.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Hal’s Dream 20.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Secret Oath 15.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Cancel This 20.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Famed 2.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Dream Lith 8.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Smile Happy 12.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Classic Causeway 3.50 1.8 3-1
9 7 Red Knobs 15.00 2 4-1
12 10 Ben Diesel 15.00 2 4-1
14 11 Call Me Midnight 15.00 2 4-1
11 9 Ready Pursuit 50.00 2 4-1
7 5 Vivar 12.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Guntown 15.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Rich Strike 50.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Tiz the Bomb 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mannix (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH
10 8 White Abarrio 8.00 11.2 21-1
5 4 Howling Time 3.50 12 23-1
4 3 Texas Red Hot 12.00 12.7 24-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Fern Creek S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Marissa’s Lady 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bali Del Sol 12.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Knowing Glance 8.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Matareya 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Laura’s Charm 15.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Verylittlecents 3.50 5.4 10-1
8 8 Sweet Dani Girl 2.50 6.9 13-1
1 1 Golden Sights 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
4th - 3:38
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Final
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4th - 7:27
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1st - 4:02
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