November 26, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Commander Scott | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guilty Lover | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dapper Dan Man | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Guitar Slim | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arctic Rose | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wild Firemaker | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Semi Charmed Life | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mangelsen | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | New Eagle | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Frankincense | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Picking Roses | 2.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Sharpendup | 2.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tigerbeach | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Foldover | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Falcon Rocket | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Promising Shoes | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | King of the Testo | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Briar Jumper | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tio Blas | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Makati Phil | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Harbor Knight | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Blazing Fire | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chambliss | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pillage Da Village | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Little Flaco | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Light | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Apriority Storm | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Money Well Spent | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Spider Legs | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Calaja | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crimson Feline | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Theboyzgalaxy | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | G’s Deadline | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Missing Piece | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vita | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trefoil | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Duepeg | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sweet Prayers | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fannie and Freddie | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Union | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Freudian | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Prima Ballerina | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bunnie Rae | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chrome Racer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Princess Theorem | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ylikedis | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Russian Mafia | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vividly (GB) | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Take Charge | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stillchargingmaria | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny One | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Corluna | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cantata | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Zoom Up | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Underhill’s Tab | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Midnight Hurricane | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Prather | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Gran Muchaco | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Boss’ Dialin In | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Baltic Fleet | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Tiz of Thee | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Real Money | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Seven Scents | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Machine | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hope and Dignity | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | A Song for Arch | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Vice Versa | 6.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Excess Magic | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jack the Umpire | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | High Limit Room | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shackleford Strong | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Blue Note | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tapizars Secret | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Thatsafactjack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | McFeely | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bouldering | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Helaire | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Gutzy | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Order Up | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tambourine Star | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | All Mike No Mae | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Iknowididn’tdothat | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. K W | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ls’shoe’s Image | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scoring Drive | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Touchuponastar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | I Like Dreaming | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.