November 26, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Rousing Siren | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southerner | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seattlesway | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cool Runnings | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Favorite Uncle | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Command Central | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Seminole Beach | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Out Work’n | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Altered | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Belfast Boy | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Nick | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oncoming Train | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Giannis | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Timber | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mo Betta | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Standup Or Shut Up | 10.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | High Fair | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Queen’s Table | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Miss Tulsa | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peyton’s College | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Voodoo Loa | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Supertaleofhoudini | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | November Rose | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Closet Shopper | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Choice | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Judy’s Way | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Emilia’s Moon | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stand for the Flag | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Powder River | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Silent | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Tea | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Black Swan | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Blaze | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Encouraging | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flashy Charge | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Sport | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Anna Volante | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hidden Promise | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hombrazo | 1.20 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Higher Authority | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Something Natural | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | English Challenge | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Alkhaatam | 1.80 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cabertoss | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fire Marshall Bill | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Nietzsche | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Cherish the Day | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ipsum Gratus | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hail to Helen | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Palm Court | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Joy Unbridled | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Joan’s Way | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Sovelia | 50.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Amari S. | 50.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Stacy Attack | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Epicurean | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cuzzywuzzy | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’m Stylin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Enraged | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nip N Tuck | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mists of Time | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sol Del Sur | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Notable Exception | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Feature | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cochise Charlie | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tuggle | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Huge Bigly | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Farmington Road | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ironstone Road | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jungle Warfare | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Twenty Twice | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Allege | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Goalie | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Patagonia | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Milliken | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Injunction | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gentle Soul | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tiz Rye Time | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ginsburned | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Group Hug | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flags Up | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Notary | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trashtalkinyankee | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Perfect Silent Cat | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Leblon | 50.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bern N Ash | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Angkor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Night Ops | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chess Chief | 30.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Militarist | 50.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | King Fury | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dr Post | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Bourbon | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maxfield | 1.20 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Saver | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Cousteau | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mish | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 12 | 12 | A C Expressway | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pirate Rick | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brew Crew | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Extreme | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | On Your Mark | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Critical Threat | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greener Pastures | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tango Charlie | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | No Que No | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | One Fast Cat | 6.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.