November 25, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Markitoff | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Estilo Peligroso | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pickford | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shell Fire | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Exemplar | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tez | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Dot | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Heirloom Kitten | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | All the Diamonds | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Outlier | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Palatial Times | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Artie’s Lady | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ima Bling Cat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Divine Miracle | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Last Hand | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A. K. Safari | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Criminal Defense | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fan Favorite | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Westward Look | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Generator | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nip N Tuck | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bitter Vixen | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Wonder Girl | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Duplicitous | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Front Street | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Music App | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Town Beauty | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Forever Boss | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delta Gamma Cats | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sapphire Royalty | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shastaloo | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Assertive Style | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Diva | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Airborne Gal | 3.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My My Munny | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tipsy Gal | 4.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | April’s No Fool | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | New Roo | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Regal Retort | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Secretly Wicked | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grand Cru Classe | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | High Fashion | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Distorted Verve | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Penny | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Family Time | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Longpants Required | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pliantlea | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big City Momma | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Hashtag Winner | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Treaty of Paris | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Girl Lexi | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Southern Smile | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sariah Sariah | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breonna | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ann in the Middle | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | A Little Flyer | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nic and Zoe | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Edgee Angel | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gilded Ruler | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Art Heist | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Always Hopeful | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Giant Nova | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blue Norther | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bernie Lomax | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | All in Sync | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shackle It | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ten Extra | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Smokin Willie | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yodason | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coffee With Alex | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Island Music | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Call Me Jamal | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Laughing Boy | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ed | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Commandeer | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Johny’s Fireball | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kinetic Sky | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | King’s Ovation | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flamingo Hawk | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Warrior in Chief | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dr Jack | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Who Took the Money | 12.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gallant Guy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Falls City S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Audrey’s Time | 15.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | High Regard | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bonny South | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Envoutante | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Army Wife | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crystal Ball | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cheetara (CHI) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Zoffa | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Light the Way | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fade Away | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Exulting | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gambler’s Fallacy | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pinson | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thirsty Betrayal | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Skyscanner | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gagoots | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.