Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 24, 2021

November 24, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Graciana 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Saintsation 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Bertrada 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Just Fine by Me 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Juliaison 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Beyond a Million 3.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Jump Into the Fire 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Becauseofthebrave 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Split Decision 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Scenic View 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Senorita Karlita 6.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Pacific Grove 2.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Dressedtoimpress 12.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Start Class 20.00 2.9 5-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Positive Vibes 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Magical Peapod 4.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Good Fight 2.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Microcap 2.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 My Bets 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Lemon Popper 5.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 In Dreams 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Camargo 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Love On the Rocks 12.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Dot’s Dollar 8.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Atras 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Treaty 8.00 2 4-1
7 7 Onyourmarkgetsetgo 15.00 2.3 4-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lake Nakuru 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Spheroid 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Shofar 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Count Your Pennies 15.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Allen 10.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Eastside Cool 2.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Hemp Heaven 8.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Honey Run 3.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Distorted View 10.00 1.3 3-1
10 10 Constitution Lady 10.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Fired Up Tiger 12.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Exceeding 15.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 High Meadows 10.00 2 4-1
3 3 Getonouttahere 12.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Slushy 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Texas Lexus 15.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Miracle Mischief 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Bodacious Baby 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Howboutdemapples 3.50 5.4 10-1
13 13 Jersey Gold 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 First Course 6.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Singita Dreams 4.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Its Cold in Dehere 2.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Bold Tactics 3.00 5.1 10-1
7 5 Funnybet 6.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Champagne Toast 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Semble Juste (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Decision Maker 10.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Warbird 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 First Line 3.00 3 6-1
1 7 Perfect Cut 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 6 Nathan Detroit 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Bourbon Thunder 2.50 5 10-1
1A 8 Bugle of War 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 5 Carillo 4.00 7.6 14-1
6 5 Simon Peter 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Fan Club 6.00 1.1 2-1
1 10 Drive for Fun 12.00 1.3 2-1
1A 13 Road Abroad 12.00 1.4 3-1
10 9 Elite Power 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 6 Crump 4.00 2 4-1
11 11 Street Ruckus 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Emerald Express 30.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Surveillance 10.00 4 7-1
6 5 Carmel Crush 5.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Sticky Issue 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Mount Kenya 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 3 Cronus 15.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Tartufo 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.