November 19, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tizafeelin | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flower Moon | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dalida | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Christmas Poem | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Notreallynotreally | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tap the Line | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pletcher | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Road Bible | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Devil’s Tower | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cypriano | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Illbootengotty | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Giannis | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grove Daddy | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Freudian Fate | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yes Sir Robert | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rob the Rich | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Toobadsosad | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Feast | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Runninsonofagun | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cloud Creek | 8.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ridgepointe | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Yolo Santiago | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Papa Red | 12.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wild Appeal | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boneyardholler | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Outcome | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summer in Malibu | 30.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Behind the Curtain | 50.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | La Flecha | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Luna | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | American Chavo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Wherewegoin | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Creative Courage | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mogowan | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Goldenpence | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Secretary At War | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Improbable Story | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taos | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jack’s Advantage | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mine My Time | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Distorted Ransom | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spanish Idol | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Guajira | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rock Along | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Santa Elena | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hillstone Martini | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sol Dorado | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Restless Eyes | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Runnin Happy | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Delightful Breeze | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Rocket Dawg | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mamzooj | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bet He’s Ready | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grantham | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Improbable Journey | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jeeper | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Choked Up | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fast Lane | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Sense | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Galactic Empire | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Circle Back Jack | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Beyblader | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Florida Gator | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Demogorgon | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Leddy | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Label | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Formal Order | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Come Alone | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Halftime | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Verbier | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Heston | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Encourage | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chileno | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Bon Bueno | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Tiger Moon | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Magilla | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scattershack | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gilded Age | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mahoney Road | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lake Tahoe | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | I’m a War Lord | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.