November 17, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Oxxon | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fredericktown | 6.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Desoto’s War | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Casadora | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gold Incense | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Haydens Havoc | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Familiar Ways | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Paid Twice | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Master Lea | 15.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Loco | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Osbourne | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hitting Bombs | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Carnivore | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Hot Toddy | 20.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Waterboy | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gunduz | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bassett | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Steely Danza | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Loot the Moon | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Get to Know Me | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Easily Influenced | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Blanket of Roses | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bear Alley | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hawk of War | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Highestdistinction | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kingmeister | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blake B. | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gold Money | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Saving Sophie | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bethabara | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Honey Parade | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kay Bee Gee | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge Erica | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Storm | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chakra | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kasserine Pass | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Continental Coins | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Simovitch | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sono Grato | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tuggle | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Arabian Prince | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Runnin’ Ray | 1.80 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Meister | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Catechism | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Larimar | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sterling Miss | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lady of Luxury | 2.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Inthemidstofbiz | 1.60 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magical Peapod | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Super Cat Lady | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Long Range Toddy | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bon Raison | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Endorsed | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Alfred James | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Three Technique | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pneumatic | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Purrfect Love | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Magic Lamp | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Weekend Pass | 20.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Supertrix | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Abaporu | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Temple Belle | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Supertaleofhoudini | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Ecstasy | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | C V Thunder | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frontier Dynasty | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.