November 12, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Madelyns Heat | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kissalot | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dox Biz | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Not That Serious | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nashchetta | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blacksmith Strong | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prather | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Queen Louise | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jazzy Lady | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Especially You | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Celestial Spin | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seven Kingdoms | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Morning Light | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Charger | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | River Redemption | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sprinklehead | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cousteau | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Centurion | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Polsar | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Rebopper | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deceiver | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Early Wager | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Runnings | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dover Strait | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Contractor Bill | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ipsum Gratus | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Marvelousmoondance | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Moonchild | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | November Rose | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Megan’s Clara | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Girls | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mapleline | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Villareggia | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Epicurean | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Z’s Lucky Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ram | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Colonel Bowman | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shortlist | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Candy Tycoon | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ebben | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sermononthemount | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vulcan | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Briefcase Bully | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Code Name Kate | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sarah Harper | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fire On Time | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Before You | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Live It Up | 50.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Super Wonder Girl | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Flash Magic | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Latte Dolce | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Sweet Kat | 50.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Touch of Class | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Super Quick | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coppelia | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winning Romance | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shesa Mystery | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Willful Woman | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Town Avenger | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moon Swag | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Strong Silent | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Capture the Glory | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Nietzsche | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Volubile | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Midnight Patriot | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Subdued | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Artie’s Lady | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Double Tough Tiger | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Thirsty Betrayal | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Don’t Forget | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Skyscanner | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Artemus Eagle | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Secretary At War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Malpais | 1.20 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.