November 10, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Skyvalue | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Radiantrithym | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 2 | My Dark Secret | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Whiskey Sis | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Bow Maker | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Miss Pinkerton | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Betcha | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Eskenforit | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pit Boss | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Something Natural | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Stiff | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tez | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mississippi | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nobrag Justfact | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | My My Munny | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spy a Star | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fine Prospecture | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brooklynn’s Dabomb | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Us | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Midway’s Angel | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Grand Design | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Restoring Hope | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 6 | See the Pyramids | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Revenio | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Imtheprince | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Happy Camper | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Rye Humor | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Upham | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Holding Court | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ike and Jack | 15.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Maximum Impact | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Datttsafancyfox | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aristocat | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bar On the Beach | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Practice Squad | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Side Bet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Vidal | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jesuit | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cousin Greg | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barstow | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Barber Road | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dare Goes Da Devil | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Myopic | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Defeater | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Star | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wing Commander | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hunt the Front | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sense You Left | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Family Time | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | High Fashion | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ship It | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Front Street | 1.40 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fist Full of Dice | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glamour Girl | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Admaa | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Joe Frazier | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bob’s Edge | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fire Sword | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brad’s Time | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mighty Mischief | 4.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Momos | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | County Final | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boca Boy | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hippodrome | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Corrente de Ouro | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Yasuda | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One More Baby | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coastal Chaos | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Star Shopping | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wicked Genius | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Versatile | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Soldier | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.