November 7, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Wild Wes | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ultimate | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Toobadsosad | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yes Sir Robert | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Airwar | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Four Dawn | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Sister | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hannah’s Haven | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | U So Money Baby | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Off the Charts | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Justastar | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Joplin | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Singsong Bird | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sun Dress | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honey Bourbon | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kitty’s Promise | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Moira | 1.20 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | On the Rise | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Sport | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Apart of My Charm | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shell Shock | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Terranova | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Music App | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Can’tbetemall | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morocco | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prompt | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blueridge Mountain | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Futile | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jammers Justice | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I Will Stand | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stay Home | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Purrfect Love | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sentimental Cross | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fastest Spin | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Vietnam | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Palm Court | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cuzzywuzzy | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunset At Mallory | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flirtatious Kitty | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hold Me Girl | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Americain Bourne | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Sovelia | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Joy Unbridled | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Laura’s Charm | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Naughtynaughty | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | T. K.’s Joker | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mohaylady | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curbs and Cones | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blest Life | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Raid | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | O Dogg | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rubiginous | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Science (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Road Bible | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cochise Charlie | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Major Chance | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belfast Boy | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | The Feature | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mutual Confidence | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Loch Garman | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sir Giannis | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lady Frosted | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bees and Honey | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Amendment Nineteen | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Maybe Later | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Traveler | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sparkle of Hope | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alydiva | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Admaa | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Only Kidding | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tap for Me | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | South Georgia | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Anna Volante | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smarmy | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Askew | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mine for Passion | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Commander | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Mate | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.