November 5, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gulfstream Way | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Shift | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Money Mike | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prize Fighter | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lofty Adjudicator | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Babylon | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Estilo Peligroso | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pickford | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ransack | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chicory Blue | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Americain Joey | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Altito | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strate Remark | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Baquero Flies | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ginormous | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin Hot Bobbie | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Matt’s Honey | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Positive Vibes | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ginny B | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Folly | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Town Beauty | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Connie K | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Airborne Gal | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lutescoot N Boogie | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duplicitous | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saving Sophie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Big Pete | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hang Tight | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shadyfied | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Remember Normandy | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thispointintime | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Long Crow | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eli | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Knowhowiknow | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Quality | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Press Snooze | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Katzarelli | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Centrifuge | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spheroid | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moliere | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cancellara | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Split Decision | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twin Cause | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Luckywise | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Bugg’s Girl | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joezine | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Start Class | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Mercedes | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Freudian | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Courageously | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spankhurst | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brew Crew | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A C Expressway | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oncoming Train | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | On K P | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Abundant | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bezos | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | All the Diamonds | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | First Course | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Singita Dreams | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talk Radio | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Picasso Collection | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Peter’s Kitten | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Audrey’s Time | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Pallas Athene | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Assertive Style | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Gamblin Train | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cyberknife | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Keen Heir | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kupuna | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Words of Wisdom | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Island Music | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rider’s Special | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Classic Moment | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sensei Lawrence | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Z Man | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Jamal | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Grantham | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cloudy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.