October 30, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Our Closure | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Social Circle | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | War Eagle’s Love | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indian Bella | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Commish | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Angel of Verdun | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Tassa | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | You Can Be Magic | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Claire June | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Under One Sky | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Poronui | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Heavenly Hellos | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bella Astern | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Freedom Rose | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Charlottes Way | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sign and Seal | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Pearl Earring | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Spartina | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Seiver | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bee Right | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Earley Rose | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hannah’s Haven | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Swizzlecity | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Loftyshipslowsails | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Loonshot | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Embodiment | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Verrucarol | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Countrified | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Illustrious | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baja Fog | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cachirulo | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lesters Dream | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Closet Shopper | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Solarri | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dalida | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kizzy B | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Upandcomingstar | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Surrealist | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Queen’s Table | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Temper Time | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Maxine Machine | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Yin Yang | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Decree of Love | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bhoma | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | North County | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Morgs World | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Roughly a Diamond | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sparkle Blue | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kneesnhips | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Triple Tiara | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dirty Nellie | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lizy D | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Zing | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | Derby Date | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Top Seed | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Much Better | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Bon Raison | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Fact Finding | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pyron | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Shirt No Shoes | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Mr. Jagermeister | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Uber Kirk | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Ebben | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Bowman Mill S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Freelancer | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nakatomi | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chattalot | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Shot | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Prankster | 2.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hungry Henry | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hope in Him | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roger McQueen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bryan Station S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Camp Hope | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Yes This Time | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scarlett Sky | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Like the King | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dreamer’s Disease | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Point Me By | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hush of a Storm | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charles Chrome | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hot Blooded | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | In Effect | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Silent Cat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dyn O Mite | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Gallant Guy | 30.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Hagyard Fayette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | King Fury | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Night Ops | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Code of Honor | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Manhattan Up | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Major Fed | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fort Peck | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Independence Hall | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Militarist | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sleepy Eyes Todd | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Famed | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Halo of Fire | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Catwings | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Honey Run | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bunduki | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gun Slingin | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Spring Magic | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Friend Amy | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Willakia | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Valentina Day | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gorgeous Carina | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honeycomb | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cumulonimbus | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.