October 28, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Extreme | 0.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Holiday Ticket | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hurry On Out | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Windcracker | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hometown Hero | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pharoah Cat | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Miracle Man | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sprinklehead | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bobby Baby | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Something Natural | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pinson | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Urbanite | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | David’s Gem | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stock Deal | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Taos | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ananroad | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Copacetic | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady de Peron (GB) | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Epona Bay | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pentagon | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Frosty Diplomacy | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Voodoo Loa | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sachem | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Brielle | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trouble Making | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Esperer (FR) | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scarabea | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Richebourg | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Summer Mate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mint Edition | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fits the Jill | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | South Georgia | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Copper Town | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Best of Greeley | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Hustle | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mount Travers | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jack Van Berg | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Nuclear Option | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Arareco Lake | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dame Joviale | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Marr Time | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flower Garden | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Legerity | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Margeaux Romance | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Tricked Out | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aragon | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Blaze | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Roll Baby | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twirling Savi | 5.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bodacious Baby | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Alms | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Odor | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brooke Marie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honey I’m Good | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Drop a Hint | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Social Chatter | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady of Luxury | 4.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Amazima | 20.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lead Guitar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Elle Z | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Headland | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Shesomajestic | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Palace Avenger | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jego | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Leslie Chow | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mistical Curlin | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Yolo Santiago | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Napa Valley | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Zatip | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Coffee With Alex | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Magazine Street | 3.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Galactic Empire | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atlantic Dancer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Box Office Warrior | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Quick to Blame | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kinison | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Rerally | 30.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dyn O Mite | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Bundibunan | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tarantino | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fortuity | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Last Zip | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vintage Print | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Absam | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Parkland | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kingmeister | 4.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Own Agenda | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Charles Chrome | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Newsworthy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sermononthemount | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Ironstone Road | 50.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rome | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Steinbeck | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Yono | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cloud Creek | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | I’ll Figure It Out | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Practice Squad | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In Dreams | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Benny’s Fiddle | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magoo | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Combat Medal | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rumble Ready | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pour Me a Double | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strings | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Good Soldier | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.