October 23, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curbs and Cones | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Distorted View | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Soldierssweetheart | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Slushy | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Social Engagement | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Simply Complicated | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Faithful Ruler | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sovereign of Speed | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Inbound | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Top Gun Girl | 1.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sutherland | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Little Man Can | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Omaha Red | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Atras | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Levee Proud | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Commander | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Time | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Overlander | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bet He’s Ready | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ridgepointe | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Heir to Greatness | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Shannonrun | 50.00 | 15.1 | 29-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Brother Aaron | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inventing Blame | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Quick Return | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Soaring Bird | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Airwar | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Petit Verdot | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fire Coral | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emilia’s Moon | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Microcap | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smokin Hot Bobbie | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Beach Flower | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Enchanted Nile | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | War Machine | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caveat Emptor | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Private Island | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Leblon | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Seven Channels | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hard Knocking | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hot Stove League | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Major Sparks | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Arabian Prince | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Assiduously (GB) | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eye of the Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Candy Tycoon | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Calling | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mystic Night | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Twenty Twice | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beau Luminarie | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shortlist | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quarterback Dak | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Perryville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Soup and Sandwich | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pipeline | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | He’smyhoneybadger | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Runway Magic | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pickin’ Time | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Unity | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ram | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boca Boy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cool Quest | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Mr Dumas | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bizzee Channel | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spectacular Gem | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Argentello (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Agenda | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | English Bee | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Silver N Lai | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hierarchy | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Big Dreaming | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Megacity | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pirate’s Punch | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Beat Le Bon (FR) | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lexus Raven Run S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Miss Speedy | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Obligatory | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Zainalarab | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cilla | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Someone Said So | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Souper Sensational | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strong Silent | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shalimar Gardens | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Minute Waltz | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Caramel Swirl | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Feeling Mischief | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Just Read It | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Joy’s Rocket | 15.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Pine Knoll | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Santin | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Healing | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ginsburned | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wing Commander | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Nice Ace | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | El Socio | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ricochet | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nathan Detroit | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crown the Prince | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Holdtheflight | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Clearing Waivers | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.