October 22, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kennebec | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Optimistic Valor | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zippy Baby | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Del Oro | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cane Creek Road | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Never Seen Before (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Reckoning Day | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Red Valor | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Colosi | 1.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Leprino | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stitzy | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Owning | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | What an Idea | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Good Vibes Only | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Somewhere | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rich Warrior | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Straus’s Place | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Devil Be Me | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rifey | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Me Macho | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Storm the Gate | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 98 | Gerlach’s | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Messier | 1.20 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blackadder | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cover Me Up | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Godsend | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Swear Dave | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yogi Boy | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Freedom Lass | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aloha Kitten | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Noguez | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cinnte Winnte (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Varoma | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jimmyssmokedcarrot | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Northern Gem | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tiz a Master | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | So Very Smart | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rain Diva | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Delta Wind | 0.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smoothlikebuttah | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Westward Breeze | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dendera | 0.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Distorted Diva | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rose Maddox | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maggie Fitzgerald | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Endless Thirst | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | La Pulcinela | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beirut Beauty | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Naughty Evelyn | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brittle and Yoo | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bossy Soul | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheerful Charm | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Soul Sweet | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.