October 22, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | What the Elle | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz the Journey | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Peterkin | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Call of Honor | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rousing Siren | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super d’Oro | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Hot Toddy | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winning Prospect | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Coastal Chaos | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pinch Hitter | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bellinger | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ready Pursuit | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Glassato | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Baton | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Group Eighteen | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tizabigmick | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Requisition | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unified Star | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Math Man | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cause a Stir | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sargeant Barger | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Persisto | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bethabara | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Magical Peapod | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Invaluable | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Miss Moon Pie | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Hennys Crazy Train | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Larimar | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Koufax | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southerner | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Country Captain | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carmichael | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Suppressor | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sonic City | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Captain Fantastic | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ariston | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cousteau | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jura | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here Mi Song | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drive for Fun | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Habitus | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carmel Crush | 2.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Namesake | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | River Shannon | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Bad Beat Brian | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Carotari | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Johnny Unleashed | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boldor | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Get Western | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ship It Red | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Holiday Stone | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smart Remark | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strike Me Down | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Elusive Mischief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Maven | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Matta | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mark of the Z | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dark Oak | 50.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Goodnight Olive | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mun Luv | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Oscarette | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Terranova | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Encouraging | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seeking Spirits | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fits the Jill | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Solarri | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Standup Or Shut Up | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bahama Mischief | 8.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unbridled Twister | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flashy Charge | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Sycamore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Two Emmys | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glynn County | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Another Mystery | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sole Volante | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ajourneytofreedom | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ry’s the Guy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kentucky Ghost | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Breakpoint (CHI) | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yamato | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spooky Channel | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hierarchy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Bama Breeze | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Overbore | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sonnyisnotsofunny | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Land Remembered | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cool Papa G | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lansdowne | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Label | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Private Road | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tejano Twist | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ain’t Straight | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Lucy’s Cakes Fly | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Time for Glory | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ollie’s Gold | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Princess Nina | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Dreamful | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Wave of Goodness | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amortization (IRE) | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Jazzy Lady | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Family Time | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Admaa | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sense You Left | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | High Fashion | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Thrombocytopenia | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.