October 21, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pickford | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lover Boy | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Exemplar | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Revenio | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Campioni | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chicory Blue | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gimme Candy | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maotai | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Walkathon | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Querobin Dourada | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speedometer | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wintour | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dunvegan Doll | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hypersport | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Frosted Diamond | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Society | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Lady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Girl With a Dream | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mollie Kate | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Knowing Glance | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Dawn | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gorman | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Love and Money | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cruz Bay | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Goddess | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lubna (GB) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miner’s Queen | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Street of Dreams | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mused (GB) | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Domina | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marion Francis | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lovestruck | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coppelia | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shesa Mystery | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Berry Good | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quinta Nota | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Greener Pastures | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Tryst | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fieldstone | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blanket of Roses | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Risk Manager | 2.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Uncapped | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hawk of War | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Optimus Kat | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Girl Dad | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Perfect Cut | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Harpoon Harry | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Healing | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Assiduously (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Frenchboro | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Seven Channels | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Epimythium | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon War | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shoplifted | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hozier | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dennis’ Moment | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sounion | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flap Jack | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Amusing Antics | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Spicy Marg | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yes to Mischief | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Hey Kitten | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Touch of Class | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Madame Ready | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Show Me the Best | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Latte Dolce | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cattaleya Ronith | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Purity | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surf Spa | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Paris Kentucky | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | She Stood by Me | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Purrfect Mistress | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Swap Shop | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Joezine | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Zazzy Zazzy Dazzle | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vicarious Lady | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Burrow Down | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | My Good Fortune | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Prima | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.