October 17, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Annaghlasa (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cami Kate | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tony Ann | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | M Is for Magic | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Katerini | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stoic Luna | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dani Mo | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big News Coming | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Horse Greedy | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alleva | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bibleman | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Itsthattime | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bam Bam Again | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rinse and Repeat | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Something Super | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Picota (GB) | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Percolate (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Crosby Beach | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wellswort (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Khantaro d’Oro | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Derecho Dandy | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Corsica Flavor | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crypto Munny | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Righteously | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yellow Dress | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mucha Woman | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Soulmate | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magical Thought | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Frisco Frills | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saturday Heist | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Mistress | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Minsky (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ingest | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ka’nah | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crossword | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Inch | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Starship Chewbacca | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chasing Fame | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gordy’s Boy | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hot Pursuit | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | El Tigre Terrible | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Betito | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Story | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Burnin Turf | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Bye Putin | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hapi Hapi | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Squalotoro | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – California Flag H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | North County Guy | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Indian Peak | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Give Me the Lute | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Desmond Doss | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Whooping Jay | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Loud Mouth | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiger Dad | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unbridled Ethos | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ground Attack | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Scream and Shout | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | B’esame Me Mucho | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Measureofdevotion | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lunatic | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Runner | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Life’s Emotions | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Winter Star | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Return to Harbor | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mistaka | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 98 | Lookin At Sweetie | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Nu Pi Lambda | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Anonymously | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | September Secret | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Isn’t She Lovely | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Another Eddie | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Carousel | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Greg’s Diva | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She’s So Nice (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Awesome Drive | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Xmas Surprise | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fantasy Heat | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Storming Lady | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Frose | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Derby Quest | 30.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.