October 17, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Vallarand | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Courageous Girl | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cartwheel | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frost Me | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pay Grade | 1.20 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Appreciate | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | High School Crush | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shining Colors | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Constitutionalrage | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Emma and I | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Khali Magic | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Herald Angel | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Sitka | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Adele Kat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Carly Hustle | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lot of Honey | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Zerenia | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Seahorse d’Oro | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Forced Ranking | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Debate | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drakon | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fenwick | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Citizen Mack | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carpe’s Dream | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Forest | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Road to Success | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Swing | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Culture | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Johnnypump | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coach Bahe | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rocco Strong | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Realm | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Indoctrinate | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sandrone | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Devil Or Angel | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Buckortwo | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Last Mission | 30.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cool Laoban | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Joey the Carpenter | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Fortress | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hezastonecoldfox | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Khali’s Dream | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Deptford Dancer | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Father Walsh | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bali’s Shade | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Thrill of It | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Lord Brownie | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chief Engineer | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Grape Nuts Warrior | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fatima’s Blessing | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catch That Party | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Agent Creed | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Regality | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Missionatthespa | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Kringle | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chulainn | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cotton | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Work Out | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Water’s Edge | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Just Right | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Manifest Destiny | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | I Love Jaxson | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Analyzethisandthat | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quintarelli | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gandy Dancing | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sicilia Mike | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | More Graytful | 1.80 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Dugout | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Durkin’s Call | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Floral Park S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Raven’s Cry (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Robin Sparkles | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Honey Cake (IRE) | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gogo Shoes | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Secure Connection | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pacific Gale | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Too Sexy | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Introduced | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Time Limit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Intense Honor | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lady Valentine | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gailhorsewind | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thegoddessofsnakes | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Thesis Break | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ingress | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lilac Girl | 2.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | R Girl Faith | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wow | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rhombique | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vintage Style | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Venus Oyzo | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Suffice | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mun Luv | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tekila | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Miss Bonnie T | 8.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.