October 16, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Devil’s Tower | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scat Shack | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jovial | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Commodore Perry | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Freer | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gunduz | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lofty Adjudicator | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Just Say When | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Luna | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ain’t That a Kick | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shadyfied | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | First Glimpse | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Again | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dondada | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Giant Nova | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flagstone | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gran Muchaco | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ashwins Orb | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sherwood Avenue | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Grand Sonata | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Spin Wheel | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Verbier | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Federal Hill | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Bon Bueno | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quari Master | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lesters Dream | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heston | 6.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Verstappen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | North Street | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Officer Nick | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Prayforpeace | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Good Soldier | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hatch | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Close Knit | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kewpie Doll | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mama Lou | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lichita | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taranta (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unherdof | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Afleet Diva | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fine Prospecture | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yogurt | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lord Dragon | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pioneer Spirit | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fighting Seabee | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Palace Coup | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gigging | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hot Shot Kid | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hanalei’s Houdini | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | He’s No Lemon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Camp David | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Big Woo | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tonkawa Springs | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Wicked Genius | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Travel Guide | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Freedom’s Way | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Curbstone | 2.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Faith Runner | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hashtag No Wonder | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moms Moon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bickell | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Corrente de Ouro | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heir to Greatness | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mazuma | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cabana Time | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Street Missy | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big City Momma | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Berate | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sovereign Appeal | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | South Georgia | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocket On Board | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wild Empress | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shantisara (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Technical Analysis (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burning Ambition | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queen Goddess | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Closing Remarks | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cloudy Dawn (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Empress Josephine (IRE) | 3.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flippant | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nicest (IRE) | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Speightspeare | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Tip | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ducale | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winter Pool | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trashtalkinyankee | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mister Candy Ride | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Star | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ottothelegend | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | King’s Mischief | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hunt the Front | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eastside Cool | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Recoded | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lemos Cunha | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sara Sea | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Music City Star | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ghosting Kim | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Reagan’s Edge | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Southern Mama | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Signify | 5.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Farsighted | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bold Figure | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Big Band Luzziann | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Song River | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Chili Petin | 3.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Foreign Exchange | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Habobanero | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Social Chatter | 4.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.