Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 16, 2021

October 16, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Devil’s Tower 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Scat Shack 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Jovial 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Commodore Perry 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Freer 3.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Gunduz 10.00 5 9-1
5 5 Lofty Adjudicator 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Just Say When 3.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Golden Luna 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Ain’t That a Kick 8.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Shadyfied 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 First Glimpse 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Grand Again 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Dondada 20.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Giant Nova 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Sherwood Avenue 3.50 7.2 14-1
4 4 Flagstone 20.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Gran Muchaco 20.00 9 17-1
11 11 Ashwins Orb 8.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Bon Bueno 3.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Grand Sonata 3.00 3 6-1
12 12 Spin Wheel 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Verbier 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Federal Hill 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Quari Master 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Lesters Dream 50.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 North Street 15.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Officer Nick 30.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Prayforpeace 10.00 8.8 17-1
14 14 Good Soldier 15.00 9 17-1
2 2 Verstappen 8.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Heston 6.00 9.7 18-1
6 6 Hatch 15.00 11.3 21-1
7 7 Close Knit 15.00 12.1 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kewpie Doll 3.50 2 4-1
7 7 Mama Lou 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Lichita 5.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Taranta (IRE) 8.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Unherdof 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Afleet Diva 2.00 6 11-1
2 2 Fine Prospecture 8.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Yogurt 6.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lord Dragon 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Pioneer Spirit 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Fighting Seabee 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Palace Coup 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 American Tattoo (ARG) 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Gigging 8.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Hot Shot Kid 10.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 He’s No Lemon 8.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Hanalei’s Houdini 10.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Camp David 12.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Big Woo 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Tonkawa Springs 12.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Wicked Genius 3.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Travel Guide 15.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Freedom’s Way 20.00 8 15-1
13 13 Heir to Greatness 10.00 8.3 16-1
4 4 Curbstone 2.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Faith Runner 8.00 8.9 17-1
15 15 Cabana Time 20.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Mazuma 10.00 9.1 17-1
1 1 Hashtag No Wonder 12.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Moms Moon 15.00 11.6 22-1
7 7 Corrente de Ouro 30.00 12.3 23-1
6 6 Bickell 10.00 12.8 24-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Street Missy 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Big City Momma 2.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Berate 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Sovereign Appeal 1.60 3.8 7-1
3 3 South Georgia 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Rocket On Board 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Wild Empress 15.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shantisara (IRE) 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Technical Analysis (IRE) 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Burning Ambition 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Queen Goddess 30.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Lady Speightspeare 8.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Closing Remarks 8.00 5 9-1
9 9 Cloudy Dawn (IRE) 15.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Empress Josephine (IRE) 3.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Flippant 15.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Nicest (IRE) 10.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mr. Tip 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Ducale 1.60 2.4 4-1
4 4 Winter Pool 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Trashtalkinyankee 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Mister Candy Ride 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Malibu Star 5.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Ottothelegend 8.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 King’s Mischief 20.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Eastside Cool 30.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Hunt the Front 20.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 16 Farsighted 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Lemos Cunha 12.00 3.8 7-1
14 14 Big Band Luzziann 8.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Sara Sea 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 Music City Star 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Ghosting Kim 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Recoded 8.00 5 10-1
15 15 Song River 2.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Reagan’s Edge 6.00 6.7 13-1
5 4 Southern Mama 15.00 9.8 18-1
6 6 Signify 5.00 9.9 19-1
4 3 Chili Petin 3.00 10.1 19-1
8 8 Foreign Exchange 20.00 10.8 20-1
10 10 Habobanero 20.00 11.5 22-1
1 5 Social Chatter 4.00 11.7 22-1
9 9 Bold Figure 20.00 14.5 27-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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