Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 15, 2021

October 15, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Road Bible 1.40 1.7 3-1
4 4 Philly Cheese 12.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Bassett 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Myuddermamasapaint 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Cotswold’s Way 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Timeforawoodford 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dutch Treat 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Trendy Neve 10.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Sunday Scheming 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Miss Commish 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 A Little Flyer 5.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 War Eagle’s Love 3.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Long Monday 10.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Realm of Law 1.60 1.7 3-1
5 5 Preseli’s Tale 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Constitutional Law 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Cool Comedian 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Waxman 1.40 4.1 8-1
1 1 Carmichael 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Off We Go 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 3 Airborne Gal 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 5 Ship It 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 1 Sweet Queen Bee 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 My My Munny 6.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Irrepressible 8.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Shez Stuck Up 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bob’s Edge 2.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Barrister Tom 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Into the Sunrise 1.20 3 6-1
1 1 Bodenheimer 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 City Drifter 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Ricochet 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Mamba On Three 8.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Becauseofthebrave 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Scenic View 4.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Alittlesliceof Pie 3.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Masterful Mistress 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Mrs. Nushi 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Big Bugg’s Girl 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Call Me Penny 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Murgatroyd 6.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Joy Epifora (ARG) 8.00 1.9 4-1
10 9 Alta’s Award 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Winter Sunset 20.00 3 6-1
3 3 Breeze Rider 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Curly Ruth 8.00 5.1 10-1
11 10 Market Rumor 5.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Sweet Melania 3.50 6.3 12-1
4 4 Bacchanalia 12.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Enola Gay 8.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Good Fight 50.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Whimsical Muse 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Center Aisle 1.80 1.5 3-1
7 7 Code Name Kate 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Duplicitous 12.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Roc’s Princess 30.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Silver Strand 1.40 4.3 8-1
4 4 Fabricate 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Gerri B 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 La Tourista 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Catch a Bid 5.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 She’s So Special 15.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Campanelle (IRE) 3.50 3.2 6-1
10 9 Yes It’s Ginger 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Ambassador Luna 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Lagertha (CHI) 20.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 In Good Spirits 4.50 9.3 18-1
12 10 Change of Control 4.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Elle Z 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Signify 50.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lead Guitar 10.00 10.1 19-1
8 8 Violenza 30.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Red Hot Mama 8.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 La Bombonera 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Cupid’s Strike 10.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Champagne Sister 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Fast and Flirty 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Enchanted Trail 15.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Golden Sights 3.00 5 10-1
2 2 Malibu Kendall 4.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Ocean Size 4.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Take a Stand 20.00 8.1 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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