October 15, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Road Bible | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Philly Cheese | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bassett | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Myuddermamasapaint | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cotswold’s Way | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Timeforawoodford | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dutch Treat | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trendy Neve | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sunday Scheming | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Commish | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A Little Flyer | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Eagle’s Love | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Long Monday | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Realm of Law | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Preseli’s Tale | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Constitutional Law | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cool Comedian | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Waxman | 1.40 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carmichael | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Off We Go | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Airborne Gal | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ship It | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sweet Queen Bee | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My My Munny | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Irrepressible | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shez Stuck Up | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bob’s Edge | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barrister Tom | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Into the Sunrise | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bodenheimer | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | City Drifter | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ricochet | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mamba On Three | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Becauseofthebrave | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scenic View | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alittlesliceof Pie | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Masterful Mistress | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mrs. Nushi | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Bugg’s Girl | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Penny | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Murgatroyd | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Alta’s Award | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winter Sunset | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Breeze Rider | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curly Ruth | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Market Rumor | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Melania | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bacchanalia | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Enola Gay | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Good Fight | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Whimsical Muse | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Center Aisle | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Code Name Kate | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duplicitous | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roc’s Princess | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Strand | 1.40 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fabricate | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gerri B | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | La Tourista | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Catch a Bid | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s So Special | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Campanelle (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Yes It’s Ginger | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ambassador Luna | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lagertha (CHI) | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | In Good Spirits | 4.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Change of Control | 4.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Elle Z | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Signify | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lead Guitar | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Violenza | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Red Hot Mama | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | La Bombonera | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cupid’s Strike | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Champagne Sister | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fast and Flirty | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Enchanted Trail | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Golden Sights | 3.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Kendall | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ocean Size | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take a Stand | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.