Sports from the Basement

Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 14, 2021

October 14, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Keen Samurai 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Detroit Steel (IRE) 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Barilko 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Tahana 10.00 5 9-1
9 9 Dancing Derek 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Robusto 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Kaili’s Big Boy 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Gottoknowrightnow 20.00 7 13-1
10 10 Duke of Miami 20.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Souper Smart 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Bocelli 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Jegos Fire 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Sweepin Hard 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Right to Strike 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Liverpool Man 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Wings of Victory 10.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Daddyplaystheblues 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 The Newfie Express 20.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Polydeuces 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Conquer Him 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Midnight Choir 2.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Hard Edge 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Lady At Blame 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Karakontieparadise 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Twister Alert 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Who Says 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Emmeline 3.00 4 8-1
4 4 Buttered Toast 20.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Stencil 3.00 2.4 4-1
7 6 Ninja Princess 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Tropospheric 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Bittersweetbizness 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 Cora 4.50 4.8 9-1
9 8 Princess Dynasty 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Jokers Run 10.00 6 11-1
11 10 Regal Billee 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 3 Billyjane 20.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 Sweet Edition 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Hekla’s Aura 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Distorted Success 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 5 Breathing Fire 4.50 3.9 7-1
12 10 Rookie Court 10.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Shelly the Rocket 3.00 5 9-1
2 2 Laila’s Charm 10.00 6 11-1
10 8 Allpaidup 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 6 Lelawala 15.00 7 13-1
11 9 We’ve Had Enough 8.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Daisy Dangles 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 4 Puddle Stomp 20.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Miss Langskip 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hit Me Up 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Factoring 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 The Good Witch 8.00 3.6 7-1
10 9 Make No Mistake 3.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Anita Grigio 3.50 4.4 8-1
6 5 Valley Girl 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Lucky Girasol 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Cool Society 10.00 5.6 10-1
11 10 Northern Ruby 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 4 Pino in a Purse 10.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Crumlin Time 20.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Benadette’s Lady 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Circle of Friends 2.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Lookinatamiracle 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Marten River 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Solidify 3.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Senor Jobim 4.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Embolden 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Wheat King 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 Speedy Bolt 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Fresh Dreams 3.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Queen Beach 3.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 J M R Bold Vision 4.50 4.9 9-1
10 10 Finding Perfection 10.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Mizzona 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Misguided Passion 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Sadie Irene 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Big Mistake 12.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Forest Halo 20.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Tuscan Damsel 12.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Onezy’s Dream 20.00 8.6 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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