October 14, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Italian Twin | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taptime | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Katie’s Belle | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beyond a Million | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Enter Sandwoman | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Admaa | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Waters of Merom | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Karmari | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mizhipzletus | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classical Romance | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luckywise | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lola Flo | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greedy Algorithm | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Redrightreturning | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Treasure Trove | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knight’s Cross | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Motagally | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leader of Men | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pepper Pike | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Code Runner | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Roaming Union | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Lemonadeatthelatch | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Loonshot | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Barber Road | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Not That Serious | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Declare the Moon | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Brazil Nut | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Eli | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glassato | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Crazy Genius | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | B Maker | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Freudian Fate | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sir Acealot | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Excursion | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Oxxon | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | All the Diamonds | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belfast Boy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Illbootengotty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Almanzo | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | King Doodle | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Malibu Mike | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cloud Creek | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Underdressed | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | All Choked Up | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Yasuda | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ignitis | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Oiler | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gruden | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruggs | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Flanigan’s Cove | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Palamos (GB) | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dibble Dibble | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Fast as Flight | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wicked Intent | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | English Treasure | 4.50 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Lady Brielle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Mscovertoperation | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Scarabea | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 7 | Bella Conchita | 5.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fleeting Glimpse | 5.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Miss Tulsa | 30.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Trick Hat | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Olympiad | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bears Watching | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Milliken | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tulane Tryst | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Notary | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Pledgeofallegiance | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Simovitch | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Santa Cruiser | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Trashtalkinyankee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hunt the Front | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ducale | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Malibu Star | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Spankhurst | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tiberius Mercurius | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Grandeur | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Big Buzz | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Malthael | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cibolian | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Huge Bigly | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fantasioso (ARG) | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Highestdistinction | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Intraday (BRZ) | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kantpaythetoll | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hawk of War | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Niles Channel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Candy Tycoon | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Job Security | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Beau Luminarie | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Cheyenne’s Colonel | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mud Pie | 4.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Artemus Eagle | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Bit O Bodie | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cha Cha Mission | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winze | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Palace Magic | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Floris | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Americain Bourne | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Magic Lamp | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Coralena | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Flirtatious Kitty | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | As You Were | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Catalan | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.