Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 14, 2021

October 14, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Italian Twin 2.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Taptime 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Katie’s Belle 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Beyond a Million 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Enter Sandwoman 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Admaa 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Waters of Merom 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Karmari 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Mizhipzletus 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Classical Romance 3.50 4.5 8-1
3 3 Luckywise 4.00 5 10-1
4 4 Lola Flo 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Greedy Algorithm 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Redrightreturning 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Treasure Trove 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Knight’s Cross 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Motagally 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Leader of Men 3.50 4 8-1
5 5 Pepper Pike 20.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Code Runner 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Roaming Union 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Lemonadeatthelatch 1.60 1.5 3-1
8 6 Loonshot 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Barber Road 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Not That Serious 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 1 Declare the Moon 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 4 Brazil Nut 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 7 Eli 15.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Glassato 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Crazy Genius 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 B Maker 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 2 Freudian Fate 2.50 1.9 4-1
8 6 Sir Acealot 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 4 Excursion 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 1 Oxxon 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 5 All the Diamonds 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Belfast Boy 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Illbootengotty 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Almanzo 2.50 2.1 4-1
10 9 King Doodle 8.00 2.1 4-1
6 5 Malibu Mike 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Cloud Creek 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 2 Underdressed 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 All Choked Up 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Mr. Yasuda 15.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Ignitis 3.00 6.9 13-1
11 10 Oiler 10.00 7 13-1
7 6 Gruden 15.00 9.8 18-1
1 1 Ruggs 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Flanigan’s Cove 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Palamos (GB) 2.50 3.7 7-1
6 5 Dibble Dibble 20.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Lizqueenfluerdelis 50.00 6.7 13-1
12 10 Fast as Flight 4.00 7.1 13-1
10 9 Wicked Intent 20.00 7.8 15-1
2 1 English Treasure 4.50 8.8 17-1
1A 15 Lady Brielle 5.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Mscovertoperation 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Twentytwenty Hoax 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Scarabea 5.00 SCRATCH
1 7 Bella Conchita 5.00 10.1 19-1
5 4 Fleeting Glimpse 5.00 10.9 21-1
4 3 Miss Tulsa 30.00 12.6 24-1
13 11 Trick Hat 30.00 13.5 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Olympiad 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 7 Bears Watching 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 3 Milliken 4.50 2.3 4-1
8 6 Tulane Tryst 4.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Notary 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 5 Pledgeofallegiance 15.00 7.7 15-1
11 9 Simovitch 15.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Santa Cruiser 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Trashtalkinyankee 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hunt the Front 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ducale 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Malibu Star 8.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Spankhurst 30.00 10.5 20-1
10 8 Tiberius Mercurius 30.00 12.2 23-1
4 2 Grandeur 15.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Big Buzz 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Malthael 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Cibolian 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 8 Huge Bigly 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Fantasioso (ARG) 3.00 6.7 13-1
11 9 Highestdistinction 12.00 7 13-1
6 5 Intraday (BRZ) 20.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Kantpaythetoll 50.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Hawk of War 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Niles Channel 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Candy Tycoon 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Job Security 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Beau Luminarie 1.60 SCRATCH
8 7 Cheyenne’s Colonel 30.00 10.1 19-1
4 3 Mud Pie 4.00 12.1 23-1
12 10 Artemus Eagle 30.00 12.5 24-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Bit O Bodie 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Cha Cha Mission 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Winze 4.50 4.4 8-1
8 7 Palace Magic 15.00 5.5 10-1
11 10 Floris 8.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Americain Bourne 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Magic Lamp 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 My Coralena 6.00 7.9 15-1
9 8 Flirtatious Kitty 15.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 As You Were 30.00 9.8 19-1
7 7 Catalan 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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