Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 13, 2021

October 13, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Super Sport 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Benedictinesisters 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Code Name Lise 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Bees and Honey 1.60 2.9 6-1
5 5 Lady Clementine 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Living for Today 8.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Conglomerate 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Win Worthy 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Warbird 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Fed Money 15.00 6 11-1
9 9 Freddy Flintshire 6.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 The Blue Dragon 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 February Son 10.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Coastal Waters 15.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Charger 15.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Tolkien 30.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Mount Kenya 4.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 Sailor’s Return 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dover Strait 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 American Drama 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Jimmy Dan 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 McLovin 20.00 13.4 25-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fort Knox 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Leading West 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Englander 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Lemonade Stand 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 A. K. Safari 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Bugle of War 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Enjoyitwhilewecan 3.50 2 4-1
1 4 Stand Tall 2.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Peter’s Kitten 10.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Cat’s Pajamas 3.50 2.9 5-1
4 3 Ask Bailey 10.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Spanx Legacy 10.00 5.5 10-1
2 1 Undisturbed 12.00 5.9 11-1
1A 6 First Course 2.50 6.2 12-1
7 7 Honor Hop 4.50 7.5 14-1
5 5 Talk Radio 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 One Fast Cat 1.40 1.6 3-1
4 3 Mists of Time 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Beer Chaser 6.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Violent Pass 2.50 4.4 8-1
3 2 On K P 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Storming Lion 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Sun Summers 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Empress Eleanor 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Naval Laughter 10.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Arm Candy 3.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Timeless Rose 12.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Audrey’s Time 20.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Funnybet 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Urban Fairytale 5.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Picasso Collection 50.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Mrs Claus 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ylikedis 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Gamblin Train 50.00 10.8 20-1
13 13 Discreet Kitty 30.00 10.9 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Therideofalifetime 3.50 1.5 3-1
1A 3 Kinetic Sky 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Upstriker 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 5 Fire Sword 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 4 Shadow Matter 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 6 Swiftsure 3.00 4 7-1
6 7 Absolute Chaos 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Dressed 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Turnerloose 2.50 3 6-1
11 10 Opalina 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 9 Misthaven (IRE) 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Bhoma 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Kneesnhips 30.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Roughly a Diamond 30.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Ontheonesandtwos 20.00 7.2 14-1
14 13 Diamond Wow 8.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Rigby 20.00 8.3 16-1
13 12 Boxing Day 20.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Decree of Love 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Blissful 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Haughty 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Queen Judith 15.00 12.6 24-1
2 2 California Angel 30.00 13.4 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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