October 13, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Super Sport | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Benedictinesisters | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Code Name Lise | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bees and Honey | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Clementine | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Living for Today | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Conglomerate | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Win Worthy | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Warbird | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fed Money | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Freddy Flintshire | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | The Blue Dragon | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | February Son | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coastal Waters | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charger | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tolkien | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mount Kenya | 4.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sailor’s Return | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dover Strait | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | American Drama | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Jimmy Dan | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | McLovin | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fort Knox | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Leading West | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Englander | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lemonade Stand | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A. K. Safari | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bugle of War | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Stand Tall | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Peter’s Kitten | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cat’s Pajamas | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ask Bailey | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spanx Legacy | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Undisturbed | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | First Course | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Honor Hop | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Talk Radio | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | One Fast Cat | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mists of Time | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Beer Chaser | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Violent Pass | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | On K P | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storming Lion | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Sun Summers | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Empress Eleanor | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Naval Laughter | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Arm Candy | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Timeless Rose | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Audrey’s Time | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Funnybet | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Urban Fairytale | 5.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Picasso Collection | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mrs Claus | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ylikedis | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gamblin Train | 50.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Discreet Kitty | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Therideofalifetime | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Kinetic Sky | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Upstriker | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Fire Sword | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Shadow Matter | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Swiftsure | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Absolute Chaos | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Dressed | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Turnerloose | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Opalina | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Misthaven (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bhoma | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kneesnhips | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Roughly a Diamond | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ontheonesandtwos | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Diamond Wow | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rigby | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Boxing Day | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Decree of Love | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Blissful | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Haughty | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Queen Judith | 15.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | California Angel | 30.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.