October 10, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dance Company | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Per Diem | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Holiday Ticket | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | North Pole | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Centurion | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Miracle Man | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Button Boy | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seattlesway | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jazz Time Girl | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trobairitz | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Requestforproposal | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Loved Reiko | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | High Meadows | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Start Class | 50.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spartina | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mission Belle | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Daisy Bee | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Money Taker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Candy Kick | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dancin Dee | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Gimme Mo Baby | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Macadamia (FR) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bella Astern | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Under One Sky | 6.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | R Working Girl | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Docs Seven | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Assertive Style | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shastaloo | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alberta Sun | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Cloud | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Momma Rio | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jill Babe | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sonnyneedsmoney | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Focus | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surprising | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Poronui | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coco Puff | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Off the Charts | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Academic Honor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | A C Expressway | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No Que No | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Critical Threat | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Amongst Friends | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Divine Leader | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Outlier | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Richy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | I Hear You | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Longpants Required | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Suki | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Foolery | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Charges Dropped | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sursum Corda | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Runaway Mom | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tammany | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Second Row Center | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bow Bow Girl | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Trumpet Lilly | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dance Recital | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Social Dilemma | 6.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Adeline | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ice Queen | 20.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Manasota Sunset | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Let’s Be Clear | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Laura’s Charm | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miz Jameson | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | All Luck | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Code for Success | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mabee Luckynwild | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runnin Happy | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Averly Jane | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kaufymaker | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Detroit City | 30.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pure Panic | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Boss Ben | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bonus Appreciation | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Roman Poet | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Diamond City | 4.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Circle Back Jack | 50.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sonnyisnotsofunny | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Letruska | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Envoutante | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crystal Ball | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dunbar Road | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bonny South | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Town Avenger | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Regard | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Castle & Key Bourbon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Tiz the Bomb | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lucky Boss | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Red Danger | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Martini’nmoonshine | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stolen Base | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Heaven Street | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Credibility | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Play Action Pass | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Waita Minute Hayes | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dowagiac Chief | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | On Thin Ice | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Vivar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Red Run | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fast N Steady | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rocket One | 8.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brit’s Wit | 30.00 | 14.2 | 27-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.