October 9, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Takemebythehand (GB) | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leisurewear (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Buy American | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Focaccina | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Buzz of New York (IRE) | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Witch Moon | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devil’s Messenger | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rookie Year | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Herd Immunity | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Moon Road | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cumberland Avenue | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Club Cal | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tacoflavoredkisses | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Cali Bay (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Weapon | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sai Con (FR) | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kazuhiko (AUS) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flint Stroll | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go On | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jedi Master | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Encroachment | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Paul Vincents Poem | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Straight Up G | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Creative Peak | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moose Mitchell | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Slow Down Andy | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Bug Z | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Medina Man | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lucky Girl (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peanut Butter Cup | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Very Scary | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | French Franc (FR) | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Let Freedom Rein | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charlotte Harbor | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wishing On a Star | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Macrelletta | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | K P Krypton | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Exes | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | A Crown for Kitten | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Magical Sign | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Peripheral | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Fortunata Tensio | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stir the Pot | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cunning Munnings | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Doc Adams | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gordy’s Boy | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Intense | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ka’nah | 1.80 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honorary Degree | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Swingtime S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Brooke (CHI) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Norma Jean B. | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Avenue de France (FR) | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ippodamia’s Girl | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | England’s Rose | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Global Brand | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Nasty | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Quiet Secretary | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cowboys Daughter | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ellie Arroway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Test Drive | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sometimes Always | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Squalotoro | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fun Coupons | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hawk Hill | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chasing Fame | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Among Men | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pedro Perez | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Roan Ranger | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Surplus | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clem Labine | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Bound to Bet | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Riding With Dino | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | El Diablo Rojo | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Johnny Podres | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’ll Stand Taller | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Single Me Out | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Austin’s Boy | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mischievous Path | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 98 | Scary Fast Smile | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 98 | Baby Gronk | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Foothill | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Seattle Breakout | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.