Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 8, 2021

October 8, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sum Kinda Pretty 1.40 1.6 3-1
2 2 Swanage 2.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 I’ll Make It Coach 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Coinmaker 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Katie’s Karat 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Super Ready 10.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Gingrich 4.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Steinbeck 4.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Rum ‘n Tonic 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Wake Surf 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Star Shopping 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Afternoon Anejo 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Overanalytical 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Minnesota Ready 12.00 6.4 12-1
13 13 Watch the Music 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Rule the Empire 30.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 He’s a Angel 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Prayforpeace 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Win for the Money 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 East of India 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Magilla 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Faith Runner 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 5 Nietzsche 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 2 Double Tough Tiger 2.50 2.9 5-1
2 1 Cabertoss 5.00 3 6-1
6 7 Irish Declaration 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 6 Family Man 1.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Altito 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Allen 10.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Town Classic 2.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Spycraft 5.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Big Bella Brown 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Don’t Forget 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Awesome Saturday 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 My Man Flintstone 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Lemon and Diem 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 About Our Time 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Holding Fast 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heart Rhythm 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 5 Katzarelli 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Vulcan 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 6 Savvy 3.50 3 6-1
8 7 Rob the Rich 5.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Peruvian Boy 12.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Crime Spree 15.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Brad’s Time 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Social Matrix 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Halo of Fire 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Fannie and Freddie 6.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Funny Business 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Twirling Savi 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Thedevilyousay 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Lady Arsinoe 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Girls House 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Little Lara 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Maresias 20.00 8 15-1
1 1 Two for One 20.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Camaraderie 20.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Fast Giselle 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Cavalry Charge 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Beacon Hill 4.50 4.3 8-1
5 4 Dynadrive 4.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 Crossfirehurricane 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Kentucky Ghost 2.50 6.3 12-1
9 8 Benelux 20.00 6.4 12-1
11 10 Americanus 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Valid Point 10.00 7.6 14-1
12 11 Hemp Hemp Hurray 15.00 8.2 15-1
8 7 Alfons Walde (IRE) 20.00 9 17-1
10 9 Split the Wickets 30.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Nobrag Justfact 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fighting Seabee 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sir Alfred James 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mucho 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Aloha West 3.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Endorsed 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Special Reserve 1.80 3.6 7-1
4 4 Just Might 4.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Quick Tempo 20.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Darley Alcibiades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Juju’s Map 2.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Matareya 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Distinctlypossible 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Miss Interpret 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dream Lith 15.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Runup 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Penny Saver 4.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Pipeline Girl 20.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Mama Rina 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Sequist 30.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Diamond Wow 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Myfavoritedaughter 30.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Red Hornet 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Frenchboro 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Camp Hope 5.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Modern Science (IRE) 3.50 6.7 13-1
8 7 News Break 5.00 6.8 13-1
12 11 Wing Commander 15.00 7.1 13-1
10 9 Buy Me Candy 8.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Bern N Ash 30.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Seven Channels 12.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 El Ahijado 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Scarlet Fusion 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 No Slo Mo 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Monition 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Evie’s Prince 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Assiduously (GB) 20.00 10.5 20-1
11 10 Nathan Detroit 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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