October 7, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Emboite (IRE) | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gianni Lambo | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Empire Ridge | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jupiter Rain | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hard to Touch | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snow Candy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Drakon | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | I’m Fine | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Pretty Clever | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Chasing Cara | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Because of Susan | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pendolino | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vienna Code | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Caramocha | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | I’m Perfect Too | 1.40 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Far Away Look | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trash Talker | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scotto | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jerusalem Gates | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twelth Man | 2.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Slambone | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Life Changer | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Vexednrelaxed | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amazing Dream | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | False Hope | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Milagro | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Nannette No | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Love Unlimited | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Solid Tune | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Openthegate | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | London Pearl | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Whatruwaitingfor | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roboz | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Prima Della | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Pacific Grove | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Back Up the Brinks | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Half Birthday | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Kisses | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uni Loves a Fight | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Lost Anchor | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My First Love | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bells On Her Toes | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | La Sua Pasta | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Banks | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Write the Check | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classic Vinman | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sedona Rocks | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Classic Miss | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Outrageous Bet | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Atta Kid | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Castagno | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hieroglyphics | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forever Mo | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | True Palace | 50.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tizzarunner | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Troubling Moon | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flat Out Beautiful | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Heavy Roller | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | No Deal | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Indra | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Mia | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Beauty | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Starship Reina | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cover Photo | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Annika Gold | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Roxy Girl | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Karen | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Irish Constitution | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shaker Shack | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Prairie Fire | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wailin Josie | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Money | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Byhubbyhellomoney | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Important One | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awillaway | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rossa Veloce | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Inouaintalkintome | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Hit the Nail | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Bourbon | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Causeway of Dreams | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Raving | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spun for Lu Lu | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Principessa | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barrel of Bliss | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spill the Tea | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hiya Harry | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tales of Makenna | 3.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | White Hot | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Decreed | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Favorite Impulse | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.