October 3, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sense You Left | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mayapretty | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Kingdoms | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Varsity Flygirl | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Her Giant | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’ll Make It Coach | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | Army Scout | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Happy Camper | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Tiz Light the Way | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Upham | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Baquero Flies | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Toe Tappin Luke | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 2 | Needabetterjock | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 6 | Twinkling Knight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hope and Dignity | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Doctrinaire | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Babylon | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rouson | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prize Fighter | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mountain Time | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Fred | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Puye Timing | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Frosted | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sunny Isle Beach | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Good Penny | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hashtag Winner | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Judy’s Way | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ginny B | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Bets | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Honey Parade | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Larimar | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | La Tourista | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Money Well Spent | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Zippin Gigi | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Doctor Nash | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Down Cold | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rome | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | One More Baby | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Supremely | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cohesion | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Math Man | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Flagstone | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Baltic Fleet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Russian Tank | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Camargo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Rumble Ready | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Duke of Edinburgh | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Misty Veil | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Reinecke | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seaside Retreat | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Maybe Later | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dame Cinco | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gerri B | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Eivissa | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Love to Run | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sandstone | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Marie | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Joy Moon | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Late Night Lady | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hannah’s Haven | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Secret Oath | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Start Class | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pneumatic | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sonneman | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Necker Island | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ebben | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pyron | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Finnick the Fierce | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | In Sky We Trust | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lykan | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Liberty Isle | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Temper Time | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Surrealist | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kizzy B | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chastain | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Closet Shopper | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Buongiorno Bee | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One Time Around | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alita | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apart of My Charm | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen’s Table | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.