Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 3, 2021

October 3, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Flower Point 1.60 2 4-1
2 2 Too Much Tip 15.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Honey Cake (IRE) 2.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Sosua 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Madeleine Must (FR) 1.80 2.9 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Balinese 12.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Freedomofthepress 1.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Peacebethejourney 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Salino 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Now Yus Cant Leave 3.50 4.6 9-1
9 9 Dearest Kitten 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Synonymous 30.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Exotic Cat 30.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Superbloodwolfmoon 50.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Little Nutter 15.00 9.1 17-1
1A 12 Control Function 1.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Wicked Happy 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Stonecoldwarrior 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Kaden 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 The Great Gazoo 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Fenway 1.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Forty Comets 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Scherzando 12.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Sir William 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Pilgrim S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Portfolio Company 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Annapolis 1.20 2.4 5-1
4 3 Limited Liability 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 4 Doctor Jeff 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Midnight Worker 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 City At Night 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Regal Empire 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Reghitto 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Blue Deja Vu 10.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Flatbush 15.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Dream of a Day 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Great Britain 4.50 3.2 6-1
10 10 Looking to Heaven 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Tommy Bee 4.50 5.1 10-1
11 11 India Tiger 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Exclusive Order 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Wicked Fast 10.00 6.1 11-1
12 12 Fishing for Fun 1.60 SCRATCH
13 13 Good Skate 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Glory Road 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Two Thirty Five 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Twisted Tom 10.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Musical America 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Zoomer 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Dark Storm 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Amatteroftime 15.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 American Dubai 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lady Fatima 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Alba’s Star 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 More Good Times 6.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Gambling Cat 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Coworth Park 4.50 5.2 10-1
4 4 Kitten’s Romance 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 No Down Days 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Giggle Factory 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Princess Fawzia 2.50 5.6 11-1
5 5 Mirabell Mei 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Positive Skew 30.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Waya S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 My Sister Nat (FR) 1.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Lovely Lucky 12.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Always Shopping 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Sister Otoole 15.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Beautiful Lover 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Orglandes (FR) 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Call Me Love (GB) 6.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Frizette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hot Fudge 12.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Jester Calls Nojoy 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Frosty Brew 30.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Echo Zulu 0.60 1.8 3-1
8 8 Gerrymander 8.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Magic Circle 20.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 A Mo Reay 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Saucy Lady T 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Jumeirah 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Just Right 20.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Steam Engine 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Judge N Jury 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Gandy Dancing 20.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Market Alert 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Bronx Bomber 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Blue Gator 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Saratoga Pal 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 River Dog 3.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Power Up Paynter 15.00 7.6 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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