Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 30, 2021

September 30, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tayet 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Palm Court 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Run With Grace 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Epicurean 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Make Me Laugh 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Forgot Password 6.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Steely Danza 2.50 0.9 2-1
4 4 Kingsten’s Gold 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Out Work’n 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 Incitatus 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Enraged 3.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 What the Elle 10.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Barkman 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sutton’s Cat 1.60 2.4 4-1
3 3 Dream On It 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Johnnyslittlegirl 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 A Wish for Trish 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Soddy Daisy 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Brash 8.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Dressedtoimpress 10.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Offensive Charge 12.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Absolute Love 2.00 2 4-1
4 4 Gianna’s Gift 1.80 2.1 4-1
2 2 Kasserine Pass 2.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Social Circle 10.00 4 7-1
1 1 Indian Bella 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 My Wynter Rose 20.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Bow Maker 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mr Creed 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Bellinger 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Crazy Genius 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Bet 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Kendall Square 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Hero Dragon 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Tizabigmick 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Spend Again 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sparkle of Hope 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 Point Wild 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Glamour Girl 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 She’s Forever 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Blushable 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Family Time 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Crimson Rose 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Sol Dorado 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 California Angel 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Queens Up 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Mercury Head 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Tizplenty 5.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Mystique Saboteur 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Mollie Kate 15.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Sweet N Sassy 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Smile At the Storm 20.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Gorman 30.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cant Stop This Man 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 B Maker 3.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Road Bible 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Al Millon Bob 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Futuro 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Bassett 15.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Thunder Ahead 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Sonic Burn 15.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Hex 20.00 7.7 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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