September 30, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Time to Two Step | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bastet | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Heart of God | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Super Twenty Seven | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Danny Deep Cuts | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Happy Sophia | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Amber | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Mebs Web | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Effiemeister | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awesomenewyear | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Path Less Taken | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Roxen | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New York Dancer | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | New York Supreme | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bertinga | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Spill the Tea | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Candy Monet | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mill Stone Creek | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ethel’s Doctorate | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Idaka | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Speightska | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Little Ms Scarlet | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 15 | 15 | New York Banker | 3.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Escapewithfriends | 3.50 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stella Mars | 4.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Fancy Feline | 2.50 | 13.6 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Immortalization | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Askin for a Baskin | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Castle Chaos | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Motion to Strike | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Medium | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kingdom Warrior | 50.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mach One | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | No Burn | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bee Bit | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lido Key | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Blue Atlas | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lagom | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flashing Red | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Violent Trick | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Foxtail | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Candy Flower | 2.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Equal Measure | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Subiaco | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lady by Choice | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Ghost Giant | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Speaker | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Microscope | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Faith | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Quiet Out East | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Six Percent | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ruse | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Klickitat | 2.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matty’s Express | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Too Early | 1.20 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lobsta | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Twisted Tom | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Daddy Knows | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Green Jacket | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Triple Elvis | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sidekick | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Varatti | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Donegal | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pistol Or Shotgun | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jurkovec | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Printrack | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Starfront | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Before You | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | More Moonshine | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Point | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Spa Ready | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Firing Carol | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ruvies in Time | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glass Ceiling | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Risk Profile | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rejected Again | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gins and Tins | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Ballydooley (GB) | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Colton’s Command | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Montauk Daddy | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Munnings | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Digital Future | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gandy Dancing | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Scocciatore | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Christopher | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Shiraz | 4.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Targeted Return | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Constitutionalrage | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Raffinity | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Amortization (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Freddymo Factor | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Adriatic Rose | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Horseshoe Falls | 50.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Apurate | 2.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alpha Babe | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Entwine (IRE) | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Summer in the City | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Princess Pinky | 6.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Sitka | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Amity Island | 3.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bonus Baby | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Easter Chocolate | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.