September 26, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stunning Munnings | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Escape Fund | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Well Spent | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nostalgia | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sapphire Royalty | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Breonna | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Clear Steps | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yogurt | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Carmichael | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Captain Fantastic | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Tryst | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Biko | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dover Strait | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Koufax | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Per Diem | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Outlier | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ultimate | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chicks for Free | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Davidic Line | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Press Snooze | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Adventure | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cold as Hell | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Royal Blue Boy | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Futile | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lover Boy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Popizar | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ceeky | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Blue and True | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Red Alert | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Distorted Ransom | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Brew Crew | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Auburn Hills | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hombrazo | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Treasury | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fra Mauro | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hanks | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Cut | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Alkhaatam | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lord Dragon | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The Stiff | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Indimaaj | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Markitoff | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pit Boss | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hanalei’s Houdini | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Amusing Antics | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Toccata | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flash Magic | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Latte Dolce | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Congratulated | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Queen Bee | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Madera | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Famed | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mommasgottarun | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Howboutdemapples | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Empire | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spring Magic | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Winter Love | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Speed | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Dani Girl | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sugar Boo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Core Beliefs | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trident Hit | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fact Finding | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beaver Hat | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Calling | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spa City | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Mesa | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Upandcomingstar | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Sarah Harper | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Anna Volante | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Smarmy | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dalida | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Aidanike | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Make Her Day | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bitter Vixen | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Music App | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Clementine | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss McBride | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Catalan | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.