Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 25, 2021

September 25, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cousin Greg 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Climb and Maintain 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Rumble Strip Ron 3.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Exclaim 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Magic Shot 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ginnsu Warrior 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hoistthemainsail 2.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Oxxon 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Flash of Promise 2.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mahomes Money 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 O Dogg 4.00 3 6-1
7 7 Cypriano 20.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Farzin 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cousteau 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Cool Quest 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Elite Power 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Racarino 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Emperador 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Here Mi Song 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Gulfstream Way 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Sprinklehead 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Saracosa 2.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Cheetara (CHI) 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Istan Council 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Final Cut 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Teenage Kicks 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Resurrection Road 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sally’s Curlin 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Baja Fog 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Freudian 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Blest Life 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Cha 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 American Reality 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Jerusalema 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Dawson Springs 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Lace Revolution 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Grandma B 20.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Giddy Gootz 20.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cowan 2.00 3 6-1
9 9 Rockstar Ro 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 On Your Mark 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Critical Threat 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Edge to Edge 5.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Tiberius Mercurius 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Abundant 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Spankhurst 15.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Fallen Empire 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cyberknife 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Hoist the Gold 3.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Fast Lane 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Cloudy 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Devil’s Glen 4.00 4 8-1
4 4 Silent Disco 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Beeasy 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Coffee With Alex 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 High Speed Rail 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Dogwood S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Carribean Caper 1.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Patty H 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Malloy 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Shesa Mystery 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Coppelia 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Someone Said So 15.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Li’l Tootsie 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bourbon Trail S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dr Jack 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 King Fury 1.20 2.5 5-1
1 1 Gagetown 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Bourbon Thunder 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Sermononthemount 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 King’s Ovation 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Angkor 20.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Harrods Creek S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Irish Unity 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Dreamer’s Disease 5.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Emerald Forest 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 He’smyhoneybadger 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Wolfie’s Dynaghost 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Bob’s Edge 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Shadow Matter 8.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Everett’s Song 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Ram 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Flags Up 20.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Back to Normal 3.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Chasing Time 4.00 3 6-1
8 8 Federal Hill 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Leddy 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Brawndo 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Howling Time 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 I’m a War Lord 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Osbourne 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Yasuke 15.00 7.3 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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