Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 25, 2021

September 25, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Nest 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Saffron Moon 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Dover Dreams 2.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Sea Pines 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Anileate 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Nostalgic 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 My First Grammy 2.50 3 6-1
12 12 Rocco Strong 12.00 5 10-1
1A 13 Striking Speed 3.50 5.1 10-1
11 11 F F Rocket 3.50 5.7 11-1
4 3 Qian B C 12.00 6.1 12-1
1 8 Life On Top 3.50 SCRATCH
2 1 Front Man 8.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Reckless Spirit 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Stanford (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Mr. Vincent 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Somethingtotellyou 3.50 SCRATCH
7 6 Unleveraged 15.00 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Seven Lilies 1.80 2 4-1
7 7 Him She Kisses 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Notorious Flirt 2.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 On Our Way Boyz 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Lookin for Trouble 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Quick Return 5.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Quickflash 4.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Kelso H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fort Peck 15.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Life Is Good 0.11 3 6-1
5 5 Doubly Blessed 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Chance It 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Informative 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Time Limit 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Royal Address (IRE) 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Miss J McKay 2.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Gotta Go Mo 3.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Kissing Frogs 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Tiple (IRE) 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Union Gables 12.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Too Sexy 5.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Hydra 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Secondary Market 1.80 SCRATCH
11 11 Shesalittle Edgy 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Overstep 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Tap’n de Bank 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 Thrill of It 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Silver Samurai 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Asymmetric 3.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Drosel Diem 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 My Last Mission 20.00 5 9-1
2 2 Ocean’s Reserve 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Koosman 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Zarkallani (FR) 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Flop Shot (IRE) 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Journeyman 15.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Opry 4.50 7 13-1
12 12 Angelus Warrior 20.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Winning Factor 8.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Shamrocket 2.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Price Talk 8.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 You’re to Blame 1.40 SCRATCH
8 8 Liveyourbeastlife 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Backsideofthemoon 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Zoomer 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bramble Queen 8.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Kitten by the Sea 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Platinum Paynter 8.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Clara Peeters (GB) 3.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 In a Hurry 4.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Miss Dracarys 6.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Foxtail 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Amniarix 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Saratoga Affair 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Una Luna 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hot Rod Rumble 12.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Eddie the Great 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Brady’s Legacy 10.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Unique Unions 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Iron Lion in Zion 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Pursuit of Justice 20.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Bointheback 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Devious Banker 30.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Who Hoo Thats Me 3.50 7.2 14-1
5 5 Happy Happy B 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Athenia S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Made In Italy (IRE) 12.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Pocket Square (GB) 0.60 3.2 6-1
1 1 Lake Lucerne 5.00 4 7-1
2 2 Miss Teheran (IRE) 1.80 4.2 8-1
5 5 Stand for the Flag 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Spice Is Nice 0.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 13 Live in Five 2.00 2.1 4-1
5 4 Sinfully Sweet 8.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Vivazano 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 12 U Should B Dancing 2.50 9.5 18-1
8 7 Cinderella’s Cause 20.00 9.7 18-1
1 9 Acushla 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 11 Cali Fitz 8.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Favorite Impulse 30.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Saratoga Gaze 8.00 SCRATCH
4 3 She’s the One 3.50 SCRATCH
6 5 Escapewithfriends 5.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Road to Remember 10.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Madame Rose 20.00 10.3 19-1
9 8 Steppin’ Hawk 50.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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