Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 24, 2021

September 24, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Vinegar Veggies 1.40 2.6 5-1
9 9 Beverly’s Charge 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Sweet Annabella 6.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Curbs and Cones 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Legally Lucky 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Triple P 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Lola Flo 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Slushy 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 With Cause 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ring Me Darling 1.60 1.9 4-1
4 4 Mizbehaving Sis 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Restless Eyes 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Offaly Fast 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Classiness 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Candy Raid 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 T. K.’s Joker 12.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Jack Van Berg 3.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Somes Sound 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Thirsty Betrayal 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Alex’s Strike 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Higher Authority 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Tumbling Sky 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Pat Daddy 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 El Venue 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Exulting 1.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Zanesville 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Gigging 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Ransack 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Jammers Justice 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Altito 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Positive Vibes 15.00 5 10-1
4 4 Hugh B. 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Intrepid Heart 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 5 Heirloom Kitten 3.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Blueridge Mountain 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 6 Something Natural 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Leader of Men 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Pinson 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Arrival 20.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Knight’s Cross 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Jesuit 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Willie Has Hart 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Fireman Dan 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Dealmeinbud 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Declare the Moon 5.00 5 9-1
11 10 Rithmicallea 8.00 5.4 10-1
10 9 Great North 10.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Delta Nine 20.00 9 17-1
9 8 War Ally 20.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Cachirulo 20.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Better Tone 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Identity Politics 2.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Super Sol 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Belle Tapisserie 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Mount Travers 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Best of Greeley 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 My Man Flintstone 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Centrifuge 20.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Donnels Creek 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Golden Sights 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Penny Saver 2.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Chopin Drive 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Emerald 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Blamethechampagne 5.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Bunduki 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Tone It Up 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Luckywise 20.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sir Alfred James 2.50 2.6 5-1
10 10 Shoplifted 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Coltonator 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Verb 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Dean Martini 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Drena’s Star 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Top Gunner 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Long Term Thinking 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Absolute Chaos 12.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Mutakatif (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mr. Quality 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Helaire 5.00 4.2 8-1
12 12 Buckingham Prince 1.40 4.3 8-1
6 6 Money Lender 6.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Rewire 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Unified Report 8.00 6.1 11-1
13 13 Mr Loooch 8.00 6.9 13-1
1 2 Side Bet 8.00 7 13-1
5 5 Countrified 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 1 Heffner 15.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Mamaneedsnewshoes 12.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Little Man Can 12.00 7.8 15-1
1A 15 Driven One 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Smokey Lee 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Osbourne 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Father Patrick 30.00 11.8 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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