September 24, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vinegar Veggies | 1.40 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beverly’s Charge | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Annabella | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Curbs and Cones | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Legally Lucky | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Triple P | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lola Flo | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Slushy | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | With Cause | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ring Me Darling | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mizbehaving Sis | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Restless Eyes | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Offaly Fast | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Classiness | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Candy Raid | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | T. K.’s Joker | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jack Van Berg | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Somes Sound | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thirsty Betrayal | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alex’s Strike | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Higher Authority | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tumbling Sky | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pat Daddy | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Venue | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Exulting | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zanesville | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gigging | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ransack | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jammers Justice | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Altito | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Positive Vibes | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hugh B. | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Intrepid Heart | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heirloom Kitten | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blueridge Mountain | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Something Natural | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Leader of Men | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pinson | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arrival | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Knight’s Cross | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jesuit | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willie Has Hart | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fireman Dan | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dealmeinbud | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Declare the Moon | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rithmicallea | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Great North | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Delta Nine | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | War Ally | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cachirulo | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Better Tone | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Identity Politics | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Super Sol | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Belle Tapisserie | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mount Travers | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Best of Greeley | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Man Flintstone | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Centrifuge | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Donnels Creek | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Golden Sights | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Penny Saver | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chopin Drive | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Emerald | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blamethechampagne | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bunduki | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tone It Up | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Luckywise | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Sir Alfred James | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shoplifted | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Coltonator | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Verb | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dean Martini | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Drena’s Star | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Top Gunner | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Long Term Thinking | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Absolute Chaos | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mr. Quality | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Helaire | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Buckingham Prince | 1.40 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Money Lender | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rewire | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Unified Report | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mr Loooch | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Side Bet | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Countrified | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Heffner | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mamaneedsnewshoes | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Little Man Can | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Driven One | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Smokey Lee | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Osbourne | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Father Patrick | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.