Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 24, 2021

September 24, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pinballer 6.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Governors Wraith 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Singer McGee 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Cowboys Feather 5.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Lagrue 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Numero Primo 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Captain Carnegie 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Talktoeachother 3.50 7.7 15-1
9 9 Teller 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Son of Grace 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Quiet Prayer 2.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Bells of Joy 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Behavin Myself 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Kit Kowaleski 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Point of Direction 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Off to the Beach 10.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Weekend Pass 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ruler Daenerys 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Tika Toy 30.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 She’s So Cali 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Couger 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Fox Able Charlie 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Senorita Aurora 4.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Dare to Hope 30.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Creal Angel 20.00 5 10-1
2 2 Colorofacloud 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Powerful Man 20.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Little Toot 20.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Cachaco 30.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Locash 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Princess Tine (FR) 3.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Semi Charmed Day 5.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Symbolist 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Half Cocked 6.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Dom Caetano (ARG) 15.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Tom’s Last General 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Junior Bug 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Oxbow’s Ruby 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Draw the Line 12.00 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Simple Logic 4.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Beealea 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Z U Soon 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Girlolamo’glory 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Flashy Richie 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Mon Ami Fuzzie 20.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Demand Ransom 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Baba’s Boy 20.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Givin Up None 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Princess Stella (IRE) 3.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Navy Pier 4.50 4.5 8-1
9 9 Medal of Fact 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Maximiliano 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Baseball Politics 5.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Coco Bravado 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Rule Follower 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 On the Muscle 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Mac Pandowdy 30.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Lonesome Dream 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 W W Crazy 4.50 2.4 5-1
12 12 Smokey Harbor 20.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Agent Peter Graves 15.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Clarestown 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Nip N Tuck 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Kobla Mas 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Temper Tantrum 3.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Clemson Tiger 12.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Epimythium 4.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Eye of the Cat 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Two Cookie Rule 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Texas Gano 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Good Yegg 12.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Classofsixtyseven 2.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 The Last Fact 15.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Deora Store 3.50 4 8-1
6 6 Dastardly Deeds 3.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Look Away 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Dash to the Cash 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 Mommas Boy Otis 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 King’s Story 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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