September 24, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pinballer | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Governors Wraith | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Singer McGee | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cowboys Feather | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lagrue | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Numero Primo | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captain Carnegie | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Talktoeachother | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Teller | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Son of Grace | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Prayer | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bells of Joy | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Behavin Myself | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kit Kowaleski | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Point of Direction | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Off to the Beach | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Weekend Pass | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ruler Daenerys | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tika Toy | 30.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | She’s So Cali | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Couger | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fox Able Charlie | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Senorita Aurora | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dare to Hope | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Creal Angel | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colorofacloud | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Powerful Man | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Little Toot | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cachaco | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Locash | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Tine (FR) | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Semi Charmed Day | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Symbolist | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Half Cocked | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dom Caetano (ARG) | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tom’s Last General | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Junior Bug | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Oxbow’s Ruby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Draw the Line | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Simple Logic | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beealea | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Z U Soon | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girlolamo’glory | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flashy Richie | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mon Ami Fuzzie | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Demand Ransom | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baba’s Boy | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Givin Up None | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Princess Stella (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Navy Pier | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Medal of Fact | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maximiliano | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baseball Politics | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coco Bravado | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rule Follower | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | On the Muscle | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mac Pandowdy | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lonesome Dream | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | W W Crazy | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Smokey Harbor | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Agent Peter Graves | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clarestown | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nip N Tuck | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kobla Mas | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temper Tantrum | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Clemson Tiger | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Epimythium | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eye of the Cat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Two Cookie Rule | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Texas Gano | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Good Yegg | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classofsixtyseven | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Last Fact | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Deora Store | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dastardly Deeds | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Look Away | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dash to the Cash | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mommas Boy Otis | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | King’s Story | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.