September 23, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Godsgift | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Constancia | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Miss Surprise | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Drama Run | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rachelgotstephen | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wildwood Maggie | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Express | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nice and True | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Singing Alli | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rejoice an Be Glad | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Glitterary | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Windy City Girl | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Smack | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rapid Transit | 4.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | White Lies | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | April’s Gem | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Alliance | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | City Fun | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Zandrea’s | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Spirits | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Policy Option | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Two Worlds | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jeff the Lion | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Can’t Hide From Me | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | P H Factor | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Go for Sherrie | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bulldog of Bergen | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Power Through | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Richy | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | City Drifter | 1.40 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Keeper | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Upbeat Melody | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Etched in Stone | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Valiant Vinny | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Tan | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Clear N Convincing | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Master Guns | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smokin Richie | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Green Mo’ster | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King Tito | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tuff Attack | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Take Me Up Brady | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Grandal | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Biarritz | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Angelino | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Justenufftuff | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High On Sugar | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Driver Dan | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Andrew the Giant | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | And Won | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kearny County | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cadet Captain | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Memory Bank | 4.50 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Behind Enemy Lines | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cappy Hour | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hannity | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Duchossois | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kinetic Swagger | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Bariley | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gate Crew | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Barleewon | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | War Chest | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Niles Channel | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curlington | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Red Flag Alert | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Admiral Returns | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bridgekeeper | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Christian C | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Pocket Player | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Stallone | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zarmae | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dewy’s Hit | 1.60 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dancin Nicky | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Canihaveitlikethat | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Giant’s Forrest | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Speak English | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Roar of the Lion | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Wild Fox | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.