September 19, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lady Thornhill | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fist Full of Dice | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caumsett | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hit the Nail | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pop the Bubbly | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Saluki | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Out of Sight | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grace in Motion | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Live in Five | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Briggs | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Supply and Demand | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ashaar | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Indeed | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Counselor | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Parade Field | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Giant | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nonna Madeline | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Paris Lights | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mrs. Orb | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thankful | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maiden Beauty | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Espresso Shot | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Advise and Consent | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rare Stripe | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Law | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Luna Warrior | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charleston Strong | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kawhi Me a River | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Mo’s Cat | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beckenbauer | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Seascape | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quantitativbreezin | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alpine Queen | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Creative Legacy | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scott Alaia | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cause to Dream | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carly Hustle | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seahorse d’Oro | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Sitka | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Devil Or Angel | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cool Laoban | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Geno | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Open Til Midnight | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Buckortwo | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Father Walsh | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moons the Limit | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Over U | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Makart | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hezastonecoldfox | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | El Veinticuatro | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Happy Happy B | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lord Brownie | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Scuttlebuzz | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Discretionary Marq | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Opt | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Call Me Harry | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dancing Buck | 6.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Dr. Duke | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | New York’s Finest | 8.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Alphalfa | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Bronx Bomber | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Gandy Dancing | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Power Up Paynter | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Money in the Bank | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Valmont | 10.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ifihadachance | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cartwheel | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brattle House | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frost Me | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Courageous Girl | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fight On Lucy | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awillaway | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pebbles S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Nazuna (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Plum Ali | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Runaway Rumour | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Minaun (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Third Draft | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Spanish Loveaffair | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jordan’s Leo | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Flash Drive | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Keeper of Time (IRE) | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Dracarys | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Oyster Box | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Spirit of Bermuda (IRE) | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lovestruck | 20.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Seizing the Dream | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tallis | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Term Sheet | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 12 | Hellman | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flight to Paradise | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | War Light | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blame It On Brutus | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Raising Sand | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Boy Colton | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Declareatruce | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Grey Giant | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Corkman | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Readyseekgo | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Isabella’s Dream | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.