September 18, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Grand Sonata | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Figlio Del Re (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dr Brownes Miracle | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Necromancer | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Java Buzz | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Skylander | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin’ T | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Slipstream | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Immokalee | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Regal Quality | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Baby I’m Perfect | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Summer Bourbon | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 4 | Vicar’s Legend | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Blewitt | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1A | 5 | Manifest Destiny | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Big Mountain | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Tale of Mist | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Winning Drive | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Hushion | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Joycee Haz Pizzaz | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bipartisanship (GB) | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mezcal | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Investment Income | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | So Enchanting | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ingress | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Bonnie T | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rhombique | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Live in Five | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tekila | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Grand Prix American Jockey Club Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Empty Tomb | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chris and Dave | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lone Rock | 0.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Locally Owned | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Gotcha | 30.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moretti | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kant Hurry Love | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carbon | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rigby | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rooski | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady of Thoroton | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Time Alone | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cricket West | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sals Dream Girl | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I’ll Go All In | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Cara Mia Mine | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giggling Ghost | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rent Control | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tara Dancer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Solib | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Trinity Titoli | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Twist Just Right | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Shared Future | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tout Ensemble | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Circle Back Jen | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hot Fudge | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Practical Paulie | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Into Happiness | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Oats | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | For the Flag | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Never Explain | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Eyes On Target | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Onenightstandards | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Space Launch | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Southern District | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ocala Dream | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Omati | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hot Blooded | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Shawdyshawdyshawdy | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Wicked Finn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Mr. Briggs | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Treason | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | She’s Dancing | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Esotica | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Snicket | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pretty Clever | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Karen | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Out First | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ok Honey | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vienna Code | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Handle the Truth | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lot of Honey | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shantisara (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baby Blythe | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Higher Truth (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Madone | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Creative Flair (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Harajuku (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Be Up | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Soldier Rising (GB) | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tokyo Gold (FR) | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tango Tango Tango | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Slicked Back | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Step Dancer | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yibir (GB) | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) | 2.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Experienced | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Clear Humor | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Repo Rocks | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Risk Profile | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Colormepazzi | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Manolito | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hoopla | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trash Talker | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Advance Notice | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | One Whirlwind Ride | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | American Gentleman | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Air Show | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.