September 18, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Birdman Richie | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Star On the Map | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hour Cat | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Izu Iz Or Izu Aint | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Meataball | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Delight | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Morethansoultitle | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Last Spring | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Final Call | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Copper Crossing | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Will Ya Win Sum | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lee La Dew | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Launch Away | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lion Love | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stormy Empire | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Diva | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Romantic Attack | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Risky Risky Risky | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Day | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Beau Noir (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Embodiment | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Winter’s Ghost | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dream Island | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dare Goes Da Devil | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jim and Jim | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wonderstruck | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sport Pepper | 3.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Powerful Man | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Devil’s Rule | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Offlee Fun | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Abuelo Nuno | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | River Finn | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Crankshaft | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Renegade Bob | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Talis Park Grad | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Piece of My Heart | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Music City Star | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ms Sassy Atitude | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gray Owl | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oh So Terrible | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mom’s Red Lipstick | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Richies Great Girl | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She Can’t Sing | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Power Cry | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Marco’s Dream | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | W W Kan Do | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oncewewerebrothers | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mongol Bull | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greeleys Ice | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Contraction | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Boom Box | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goneghost | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Stormin El Prado | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Day in the Country | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bee Happy Attack | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Agave Kid | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rahfee Town | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Demand Ransom | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bora Bora | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Givin Up None | 3.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pitaman | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.